The Reporting period covers the full cycle of dry season rice (Boro) and wheat crops; both winter crops are irrigated. Field preparation and planting of rice (Aus) also took place. Although the period between January and April does not correspond to the monsoon the country nevertheless received 256mm rainfall which is about 20% above average. Temperature at 23.0°C was just 1.0°C lower than average and provided a good growing environment for the crops. Although Bangladesh is mostly cloudless during the reporting period, the recorded RADPAR of 972 MJ/m2 was lower than average by about 12%. Due to good growing environmental conditions CALF reached 96%; initially low NDVI eventually exceeded 0.6, a value above most years. Similarly, VCIx too remained high at 0.9. All the indicators point towards very good prospects for rice (Boro) as well as wheat crops for country. 

Regional analysis

Bangladesh with its varied agro-ecological conditions is divided in four regions namely: the Coastal region, the Gangetic plain, the Hills and the Sylhet basin. Detailed analysis is reported below.

The Coastal region received excessive rainfall (237mm, +62% over average) and TEMP at 24.2°C (-0.8°C)  was good for the crops. RADPAR reached 1014  MJ/m2 (-11%). The excessive rainfall resulted in 65% higher than 5YA BIOMSS accumulation potential. The NDVI was initially low in January and February but rose in March and April and almost reached the 5 year average. Low NDVI, CALF at 82% and VCIx at 0.74 indicate an average performance.

The Gangetic plains region received high rain (210mm, +42% over average) and TEMP remained 1.1°C below average, while RADPAR was down 12%. The NDVI was initially low in January and February but rose to nearly the 5 year average in March and April. High CALF (96% ) and VCIx at 0.93 with BIOMSS up 39% (against 5YA)  indicate good prospects.

The largest precipitation amount (336mm) was received by the Sylhet Basin, which is average for the region. TEMP was cooler by -0.8°C and RADPAR was -12% below average. The BIOMSS potential of 945 gDM/m2 (the highest for any region) is also 22% above the 5YA. NDVI was initially low but exceeded 0.6 in March- early April then decreased to average. With a CALF of 99% and VCIx of 0.9 (even higher than 1.0 in large patches in the region), crop prospects are probably the most favourable in the country.

 The Hills region recorded 209 mm, only 10% above average, with below average TEMP at  23.2°C (-1.1°C) and a below average RADPAR of 1016MJ/m2 (-11%), the highest in the country. NDVI was high at 0.6 in January, decreased to below average from January to February and  increased to nearly the 5YA average from March to April. Although BIOMSS was above average and  CALF as high as 98%, crop condition with poor at 0.69 VCIx.

Overall, prospects for rice (Boro) and wheat crops are good in most parts of Bangladesh, barring the Hills region. It will be important to watch  weather during May, which corresponds to the harvest of Boro rice and the planting of Aus, the early monsoon rice.

Figure 3.7 Bangladesh Crop condition, January-April 2018

a) Phenology of major crops

b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         c) Maximum VCI

d) Spatial distribution of NDVI compared to 5 YA                              e) NDVI profile                 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coastal Region (left) Gangetic Region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hill Region (left) Sylhet Basin (right))

Table 3.8 Bangladesh agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2018

Table 3.9 Bangladesh agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 5YA, January-April, 2018

Table 3.10. CropWatch estimated wheat production for Bangladesh in 2018 (000t)