Canada

The current reporting period covers winter wheat in Canada. Most agricultural areas recorded snow, which limits the relevance of NDVI-based indicators.

Precipitation  was 25% above average, which provided sufficient water for winter wheat. Both the temperature and radiation were below average (TEMP  -0.9°C, RADPAR  -3%), with a maximum VCI value of 0.62. The potential biomass was slightly below the recent five-year average (BIOMSS, -9%) due to low temperature.

Two of the three main production provinces recorded a shortfall of precipitation: Manitoba (with RAIN down 23%) and Saskatchewan (RAIN, -9%). The temperature of all the three provinces was markedly below average (Alberta  -2.3°C,  Manitoba  -1.0°C, Saskatchewan -1.8°C). As a result, the three provinces has below average biomass production potentials (Alberta -16%, Manitoba -17% and Saskatchewan -18%). Shortage of rainfall in Manitoba and Saskatchewan will resulted in insufficient soil moisture and hamper the development of winter wheat after dormancy.

As a result, the overall condition of winter wheat in Canada is poor, and the production is unlikely to reach 2017 level.

Regional analysis

The Prairies (area identified as 30 in the maximum VCI map) and Saint Lawrence basin (26, covering Ontario and Quebec) are the major agricultural regions.

In the Prairies, the main food production area in Canada, rainfall was slightly below average (RAIN 104 mm, -6%), and colder than the last year (-2.0°C), while the radiation was equal. The potential biomass was below the five-year average (BIOMSS, -17%). Due to the markedly low temperature, winter wheat recover form dormancy later than average and NDVI values were also largely below the average from February to April. Also, below average rainfall is unfavorable for winter wheat in the field and spring crops to be planted in May. Anyway, since early April, the crop development speed up and may catch up with average if weather condition are favorable in the future.

In the Saint Lawrence basin, rainfall was significantly above average (441 mm equivalent to +44%), which benefited winter wheat although water logging must have occurred locally; the temperature was slightly above average (TEMP, +0.6°C) and radiation was significantly below (RADPAR, -9%). The potential biomass was almost average (BIOMSS, -1%). Although, the NDVI profiles was similar to the Prairies, the agro-climatic indicators, especially the rainfall, indicate the winter wheat in this region could be favourable, if the conducive condition prevail in the next period.

Overall, the crop condition of Canada is mixed: good in the Saint Lawrence basin and poor in the Prairies. As a result, the production of winter wheat could be affected. Current CropWatch estimates indicate a drop in wheat production (26,691 ktons, -13% below 2017).

Figure 3.14. Canada’s cropcondition, January-April 2018

                                                  (a) Phenology of major crops

                 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

Table 3.14. January – April 2018 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.15. January – April 2018 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA

Table 3.16. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for 2018 (thousand tons)