The reporting period covers the growing stage of winter wheat and the start of the sowing of both maize and rice. The recorded rainfall (RAIN) was 45mm, 20% less than the last 15 years average (15YA), the average temperature was 1.0°C above the 15YA. The radiation (RADPAR) was 1006MJ/m2, -6% below 15YA and the estimated biomass (BIOMSS) was 214gDM/m2, 20% above 5YA.

The nation-wide crop development NDVI based graph shows that the condition of the crops was below the 5 years average. NDVI profile maps indicate that the condition of about 58% of cultivated areas were above average until February but ran below average til the end of April. Only 14% of the total cropped area conditions was about average throughout the whole reporting period.

The VCIx map indicates that the condition of the current crops, mainly the winter wheat, is fairly good. This agrees with the VCIx value (0.74) estimated for the whole country. CropWatch estimates that both yield or area cultivated did not change much between  2017 and 2018.

Regional analysis

Egypt can be subdivided into three agro-ecological zones(AEZ) based mostly on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. Only two of them are relevant for crops: the Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip, and the Nile Valley.

In the first the average rainfall was 34 mm (-34% below average), while in Nile Valley zone it reached 120 mm, an increase of 86% over average. Since virtually all Egyptian crop production is irrigated, rainfall makes little change in the outcome of the season, although additional water usually has a beneficial effect.  RADPAR for both zones was about 6% below average and the BIOMSS index shows a decrease of -9% in Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip zone, and 79% increase over Nile Valley zone compared to the 5YA.

The NDVI-based  Crop condition development graphs indicate below average conditions for both zones but, crop condition was lower in the Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip zone than in Nile Valley zone, in agreement with the VCIx values (0.74 and 0.84, respectively).

Figure 3.11. Egypt crop condition, January - April 2018.

                                                  (a) Phenology of major crops

           (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c) Maximum VCI

               (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                (e) NDVI departure for the whole country

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip (left) and Nile Valley (right)).

Table 3.17. Egypt agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values, and departure from 15YA, January - April 2018.

Table 3.18. Egypt agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values, and departure from 5YA, January - April 2018.

Table 3.19. CropWatch-estimated rice, maize, and wheat production for Egypt in 2018 (thousand tons).