Ethiopia has two major production seasons (Belg and Meher). The period covered (January- April) was the Belg season. The South-Eastern, Western and Central-northern parts of the country practices mostly maize, wheat, barley and beans production during the reporting period. Although only about 10% of maize is produced during Belg, the season season plays an important role in terms of food security: this year's crops were generally good so far according to the NDVI-based season development graph.

CropWatch Agroclimatic indicators show that the reporting period recorded 188 mm total amount of rainfall which is an increase by 1% and 1.3°C decrease in temperature. RADPAR decreased by 2 percent below average, and the biomass production potential increased by 1 percent compared to the five-year average. The VCIx value of crop area showed that moderate crop health condition was  recorded at national level with value of VCIx 0.63, but in some part of the central and west of Oromia region VCIx exeeded1.00,  which implies the area experienced few agricultural problems (disasters and diseases ). The NDVI clusters and profiles provide additional spatial information: about 18.4% of the country (around central Oromia) enjoyed favourable crop condition,  which is confirmed by high VCIx values . Other areas (Eastern Oromia, Amhara and Eastern Tigray) experienced less favourable vegetation condition (VCIx was close to or lower than 0.50). 

Regional analysis

The reported period covers  main rain-fed cereal producer areas found in the South eastern mixed-maize zone, Western mixed maize zone, and Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone.

South-eastern mixed maize zone (47 in the VCIx map) is one of the major agricultural regions. Its rainfall was found to be significantly above the average (+74%) but the temperature in this zone was 0.8 degree below the average. The RADPAR was more significantly below average (-4%). The potential BIOMASS on the other hand was found to be 39% above average of five years, this is because of an increase in rainfall above the fifteen years average. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction reached 24% with VCIx of 0.60;  NDVI started to increase in March and continued. Overal, the crop condition was favorable in the area.

In the Western mixed maize zone, rainfall was below average (-7%), the temperature   and radiation were also below average (TEMP, -1.5 and RADPAR, -1%). Both the potential  biomass and  Cropped Arable  Land Fraction were below  average  (BIOMASS, -9%;  CALF, -2% ),  whereas the VCIx was 0.49. Based on the  NDVI profiles in the western mixed maize zone and Agro-climatic indicators,especially the rainfall decrease, NDVI profile showed average values.  Conditions were generally unfavorable for maize during this period,

In Central-northern maize-teff  highlands zone, the RAIN was reduced by -27%, which led to a drop in BIOMASS by -19 % below average. CALF and the RADPAR dropped as well, by -11% and -2% respectively. The NDVI profile was also below average. Overall the outlook in the Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone is poor due to shortage of water. 

                        Figure 3.12. Ethiopia crop condition, January 2018- April 2018

                                                (a). Phenology of major crops        

         (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI       (c)  Maximum VCI 

      (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                 (e) NDVI profiles

     (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (south-eastern mixed-maize (left) and                            western mixed maize zone (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone)

Table 3.22 . Ethiopian Agroclimatic indicators by Agro ecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA, January 2018-April 2018

Table 3.23. Ethiopian Agroclimatic indicators by Agro ecological zones, current season   values and departure from 15YA, January 2018-April 2018

Table 3.24. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Ethiopia in 2018 (thousands tons)