Winter wheat and barley, spring barley and rapeseeds were in the field during the current reporting period. The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that for the country as a whole, temperature was below average (TEMP -1.7°C) and  radiation dropped below average by 12%, while rainfall was up 32%.

Due to abundant rainfall and low temperature, the biomass accumulation potential BIOMSS was slightly below the recent five-year average. As shown by the NDVI profiles, the national NDVI values were lower than average from January to early April, but they picked up during late April due to abundant rainfall and favourable temperature. According to the crop condition map based on NDVI, close to 88% of the county indicated about average NDVI including Kant, Sussex, Wiltshire, Shropshire, Herefordshire, the east of Somerset and Suffolk, Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire, Northamptonshire, Bedfordshire. Only 8% of the region experienced below average crop condition from early March to early April in Middlesex, Berkshire, Derbyshire and eastern Banffshire, and Aberdeenshire. The VCIx was 0.77 and less than  4% of the arable land had below average NDVI. The area of cropped arable land fraction (CALF) is unchanged compared to its five-year average. CropWatch wheat production estimates are 1.5% above last years output due to a combination of increased yield (0.5%), and area (1.0%).

Regional analysis

CropWatch has adopted three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) to provide a more detailed spatial analysis for the country; they include the Central sparse crop region (covering northern England, Wales, and Northern Ireland), the Northern barley region (Scotland and northern England), and the Southern mixed wheat and barley region (southern England). The Central sparse crop area and the Southern mixed wheat and barley region are characterized by unchanged fractions of cultivated arable land (CALF) compared to average. In the Northern barley region CALF decreased by 2%.

The central sparse crop region is one of the country's major agricultural regions in terms of crop production. NDVI values were lower than average and the five-year maximum according to the region’s crop condition development graph from January to April but NDVI was close to average in late April. Agroclimatic conditions include below average TEMP (-1.8°C) and RADPAR (-12%); in combination with above average rainfall (+38%), this resulted in below average  BIOMASS (-8%). The VCIx was generally poor  at 0.62.

In the main barley region, the NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graphs. Compared to the fifteen-year average, RAIN was above average by 20%, while the temperature was below by 2.2°C and radiation by  -8%. The biomass production potential was down 14% compared to its recent five-year average. The region had poor VCIx (0.59).

In the third region, the southern mixed wheat and barley region, NDVI was below average from early March to April, close to average on February and late April according to the crop condition graph for the zone. Agroclimatic conditions were: RAIN+40%, relatively close to average TEMP (-1.3°C) compared with other areas, and rather low radiation (-15%). The regional VCIx (0.84) was well above average.

Figure 3.14. United Kingdom crop condition, January - April 2018

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI 

 (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sparse crop area of N England, Wales and N. Ireland (left) and Barley area in Scotland (right)) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South mixed wheat and Barley zone) 

Table 3.23. January - April 2018 agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.24. United Kingdom agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2018 

Table 3.25. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for United Kingdom in 2018 (thousand tons)

CropWatch wheat production estimates are 1.5% increased a little last year's output, due to a combination of increased yield (0.5%), and area (1.0%).