During this monitoring period, the harvest of rainy season maize was completed in Java and Sumatra, while the main rice harvest started in March. Crops condition was average from January to April, with the maximum VCI (VCIx) value on the national level reaching 0.83. The area of cropped arable land (CALF) in the country is comparable with the five-year average. All agroclimatic indicators were slightly below average (RAIN - 2%, TEMP -0.6°C and sunshine, expressed as RADPAR -2%. Due to persistent cloudiness, the NDVI values of most pixels are invalid. This leads to unrealistically low values in the national NDVI development graph compared to the recent five-year average in January and February. According to NDVI profiles, 48.2% of the arable land enjoyed average crop condition, including Java, which has the largest share of cropped areas in the country.  14.8% of the country (mostly in the equatorial areas of  Kalimantan Barat and Kalimantan Tengah) had initially below average NDVI which however improved to near average values in February. In other area, NDVI fluctuated over a large range, possibly due to cloudiness. According to the biomass production potential BIOMSS, which is average, and other indicators, crop condition was slightly below but close to average in the whole country. 

Regional analysis

For more spatial detail, CropWatch also prepares a regional analysis for four agro-ecological zones within the country, covering the main islands groups: Sumatra(64), Java (the main agricultural region in the country, 62), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (63) and West Papua(65). The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

The agroclimatic conditions of Java follow the same patterns as the country as a whole: accumulated rainfall (RAIN,-1%) ,temperature (TEMP, -0.5℃ ) and radiation (RADPAR -2%) were below average, resulting in the biomass production potential decrease in this region (BIOMSS -11%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below 5-year average. Overall, the crop condition in Java was unfavorable. 

Crop condition was below average in Sumatra. The island experienced average conditions (RAIN +2%, TEMP -0.5℃ and RADPAR -2%) and the biomass production potential increased by 1% compared to the recent five-year average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was slightly below average.

In Kalimantan and Sulawesi agroclimatic indicators were more markedly below average: TEMP -0.8°C, RAIN -8%, RADPAR -4%, and BIOMSS -3%, According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average.

Finally, the situation in the West Papua was also close to average with TEMP (-0.6°C) and RADPAR (-1%) slightly down and RAIN up just +3%.  The resulting BIOMSS was average but the NDVI development graph shows that crop condition was below average. 

CropWatch anticipate that the yield of maize and rice in Indonesia in 2018 will decrease by 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively.

Figure 3.15a. Indonesia phenology of major crops

Figure 3.15b. Indonesia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum 

Figure 3.15c.  Indonesia VCI for July-October 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.15d.  Indonesia spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Sumatra

Figure 3.15f. Sumatra(Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15g. Java(Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Kalimantan-Sulawesi

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_West Papua

Figure 3.15h. Kalimantan and Sulawesi (Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.32. Indonesia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.33. Indonesia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.34. CropWatch-estimated maize and rice production for Indonesia in 2018 (thousands tons)