The reporting period correspond mainly to growing of wheat and rice (Rabi/Winter) besides harvesting of maize and rice (Kharif) crops. The country received 86mm (-14%) rainfall, TEMP at 24.5°C was higher than average by 0.2°C and the RADPAR of 1124 MJ/m2  was -12% below average. The resulting BIOMSS of  295gDM/m2  was 4% down copared with average. The cropped agricultural area was 65% (+5%),  VCIx at 0.79 with NDVI remaining low throughout the period indicate that conditions were not good for crops.

Rainfall distribution across the country had a large range: the Dtaes of Daman & Diu +189%, Gujarat +149%, Odisha +66%, Karnataka +39%, West Bengal and Goa both +37%, Andhra Pradesh +21% and Jharkhand +19% received higher than average rainfall. While Puducherry, Kerala, Tamilnadu, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Tripura received near average precipitation, the remaining parts of the country recorded below average values ranging from -25 to -73% of average. The States with cooler and warmer TEMP were equally distributed. States in the north-east received lower than average RADPAR (-10% or below), while sunshine ranged from -9% to -2% of average i remaining areas. The biomass accumulation potential was below expectations in most of the northern and north-eastern States but above in the southern half of the country. NDVI was consistently lower than average in most parts, particullrly in the northern belt. VCIx was low in central and southern states, while it was above 0.8 in the north.

Overal, the  production prospects can be termed below average for winter wheat and rice crops in the country.

Regional analysis

India has varied topography, rainfall, temperature and soils giving rise to a variety of Agro-ecological conditions. The country has been divided into the following zones: the Deccan plateau, the Eastern coastal region, the Gangetic plains, the North eastern region, the Western coastal region, the North western dry region and the Western Himalayan region. CropWatch addresses six of the seven regions for crop assessment; results are reported below.

The  Central Indian region known as Deccan Plateau received low rains of 49mm (-20%), 26.5°C TEMP (-0.6°C) and 1163 MJ/m² RADPAR (-6%).  BIOMSS dropped 9% in the region which also recorded persistently low NDVI. Only 73% of agricultural areas were cropped and VCIx (0.73 on average) showed  large areas between 0.5 and 0.8,  indicating poor crop condition.

The only AEZ to receive higher than average rainfall (+41%), the Eastern coastal region had near average TEMP and RADPAR of 1210 MJ/m² but higher than average BIOMSS (had +29%) . NDVI was average in January-February, dropped below average in March and regained in April. The region recorded 5% higher than average cropped area and a VCIx of 0.8 indicating fair crop condition.

The Gangetic plain region was among the RAIN deficit regions (-11%) but TEMP (23.0°C) was nearly average and RADPAR was 8% lower than average, resulting in 16% below average BIOMSS. NDVI remaining below average throughout the reporting confirms low crop prospects with only 83% of agricultural area being cropped, with average VCIx at 0.87 VCIx and, generally,large spatial variability of indicators.

With highest the rainfall recorded for any AEZ (226mm, though still 37% below average), near normal TEMP and RADPAR at -12% Assam and the Northeastern region underwent an 11% drop below average of BIOMSS. NDVI followed a near average pattern with a dip in late February and April. Though 91% of arable land was cropped,  crop condition was below average as reflected by VCIx( 0.78).

The Western coastal region received 18% higher than average rainfall, average TEMP and RADPAR of 1221 MJ/m² (-5%). This region had 14% higher than average BIOMSS. NDVI remained higher than average over the reporting period, but cropped area was only 51% and VCIx reached 0.84. Production may drop due to low hectarage in spite of fair yields

The North western region recorded seasonnaly low  rainfall (only 20mm, -9%) and experienced near average TEMP and marginally low (-5%) RADPAR. Similarly BIOMSS was down (-9%) and only 45% of the area was cropped, With VCIx at 0.76 crop prospect are rather poor.

Figure 3.16. India crop condition, January-April 2018

                                                               a) Phenology of major crops

b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     c) Maximum VCI

d) Spatial NDVI patterns compered to 5 YA                     e) NDVI profiles

f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) Eastern Coastal Region (right)) 

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangetic Plains (left) Assam and North Eastern Region (right))

h)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Coastal Region (left) North Western Dry Region (right))

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Himalayan Region)

Table 3.27. India agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2018

Table 3.28. India agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, currentseason values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2018

Table 3.29. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for India in 2018 (thousands tons