Crop condition from January to April 2018 was generally below average in Iran. Winter wheat is still growing and barley was harvested, while rice was planted from April. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, -8%) and radiation (RADPAR, -9%) were below average over the last four months, while temperature (TEMP, +1.4°C) was above average. The unfavorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in a decrease in the BIOMSS index by 8% compared to the five-year average. The national average of maximum VCI index was 0.61, but the  Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 5% compared to the recent five-year average.  

According to the national NDVI development graphs, crop conditions was above average throughout the monitoring period in about 10.3% of croplands, mainly in Ardabil, East and West Azerbaijan provinces, and some areas of Mazandaran and Golestan provinces. About 41% of arable land experienced unfavorable crop condition from late January to early February, and then recovered to close to or above average from March to April. Crop condition was below average during the monitoring period in most of the south and southwest regions, North Khorasan and Razavi Khorasan provinces in the northeast region. 

Overall, crop condition was fair in Iran during the current winter season. The increase of both wheat area (+1.3%) and yield (+4.9%) resulted in a increase production by 6.2% compared to last year. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north, and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains. 

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, the accumulated rainfall (RAIN -7%) and radiation (RADPAR -10%) were below average, while temperature (TEMP +1.5°C) was above. The unfavorable weather conditions resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 8% compared to the recent five years average. The CALF increased by 8%. According to the NDVI profiles, the crop condition was close to or above average from the end of February. The outcome for winter crops of this season is estimated to be favorable. 

Crop condition in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region was far below average. The region received only 140 mm rainfall during this report period. The water shortage (RAIN,-18%) and low radiation (RADPAR, -5%) resulted in a significant drop of BIOMSS by 12%. The CALF decreased significantly by 27% compared to five-year average, and the national VCIx (0.35) was lower. Therefore, the outcome for winter crops of this region will be very poor. 

Figure 3.17a Iran phenology of major crops

Figure 3.17b. Iran national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the January-April 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.17d. Iran spatial NDVI patterns for January-April 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right) 

(e) crop condition development graph based  Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (right)

  Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (left)

Table 3.38. Iran agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2018

Table 3.39. Iran agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, January-April 2018

Table 3.40. CropWatch-estimated rice and wheat productionfor Iran in 2018 (thousands tons)