Winter wheat in Mexico was still growing from January to March; the harvest started in April. During the same period, the maize harvest was ongoing in northwestern Mexico.  As shown by the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, at the national scale the condition of crops was mostly below the five years' average. It improved during late April and reached a level comparable to last year's, while remaining below average.,

The CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show that rainfall increased by 31% compared to average whereas RADPAR decreased by 4%. Temperature was average. All the above agro-climatic condition resulted in a relatively high BIOMSS, with the value surpassing average by 9%. As indicated by the agronomic indicators, CALF in the whole country was 2% below average. Moreover, VCIx was relatively low, with a value of 0.72. According to the VCIx pattern map, low values (less than 0.5) occur in most areas of the country except the south-east. The spatial NDVI pattern and corresponding NDVI profiles show that about 66.4% of the cropped areas experienced below-average crop condition, which is consistent with the VCIx pattern. Considering the crop situation and the agro-climatic and agronomic condition, CropWatch estimates that the maize production of this season was 23439 thousands tons, down1.8% compared to 2017.

Regional analysis

According to the crop condition development graphs based on NDVI, the Mexican AEZs display conditions similar to those prevailing at the national level. This applies to the Arid and semi-arid regions, the Humid tropics with summer rainfall, the Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains and the Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains.  

The agro-climatic indicators show that rainfall was significantly above average in almost all the regions (+20% to +75%), except in the Arid and semi-arid regions (-7%). In contrast, RADPAR was below average in all the regions (-4% to -2%). Temperature was close to average, with the departures ranging between -0.4°C and +0.3°C. As for the agronomic indicators, BIOMSS increased respectively by 34%, 19% and 22% in the Humid tropics with summer rainfall, Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains and the Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains; it decreased by 14% in the Arid and semi-arid regions. CALF was 10% and 3% below average in the Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains and the Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains whereas it was 3% above average in the Arid and semi-arid regions. CALF was average in Humid tropics with summer rainfall. Among all the regions VCIx varied between 0.63 and 0.86.

Figure 3.20. Mexico crop condition, January 2018- April 2018

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA          (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.47. Mexico agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January 2018- April 2018

Table 3.48. Mexico agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January 2018- April 2018

Table 3.49. CropWatch-estimated maize production for Mexico in 2018 (thousands tons)