Myanmar is a major agricultural country that cultivates several main crops every year. Maize is distributed mainly in the Hills region, while wheat and rice are planted across the country. The reporting period covers the entire harvesting season of maize, as well as the growing season and early harvesting season of the  second rice and wheat. The main rice was harvested before this monitoring period and will be planted in the next monitoring period. CropWatch assesses crop condition throughout the country as generally above the average of the previous five years throughout the period, sometimes reaching the maximum of last five years in January and February.

As shown by the CropWatch agroclimatic indices, compared to average, both rainfall and RADPAR decreased by 9%, with TEMP close to average.The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) showed an increase of 12%. Poor climatic condition and improved CALF led to no change in BIOMASS compared with five-year average. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows a favorable situation. Crop condition, which had been satisfactory already in January and remained so in February,  slightly declined to average in March and April. Similar fluctuations of crop condition can also be seen for the agro-ecological regions described in the regional analysis below. 

In terms of spatial distributions, cropland across the country displayed mostly good condition except for several southern provinces. The central areas of Myanmar, including Mandalay, Magwe, southern Bago and some scattered parts of Shan, enjoyed above average condition throughout the reporting period except for a transitory below average spell in late January. The southern provinces such as Ayeyarwady, Yangon and the north of Bago displayed the same condition as others while suffering from poor crop condition after mid-February. The VCIx map displays a similar patterns of spatial distribution with high values all over the country, accompanied by low values in scattered distributed regions.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions,three sub-national, agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Myanmar.They are the Coastal region, the Central plain, and the Hill region respectively.

The Coastal region shows the least favorable agroclimatic and crop conditions for the country, but the crop condition was still above average through the whole period except for late April. The unfavorable agroclimatic indices of this sub-national region may substantially impact the growing of second rice. Rainfall was somewhat below average (RAIN -7%) and radiation was poor (RADPAR -6%).

The Central plain is the main crop region of the country, and the area shows the most favorable values among the three sub-national regions discussed here. The crop condition was above average all the time and even reached the maximum level in first two month. Abundant precipitation compared with average provided good conditions for the growth of the second rice and wheat. 

The Hill region cultivates maize as its main crop; it was harvested during the monitoring period. Agroclimatic indicators were close to the national values but for rainfall dropped 21% below average. According to the NDVI development graphs, crop condition was above average before mid-April. The maize output of this sub-national region is deemed to average.

CropWatch puts the production of maize and second rice during 2018 slightly above those of 2017.

Figure 3.21. Myanmar crop condition, January - April 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops

            (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                 (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Coastal region (left) and Central plain (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hillregion)

Table 3.50. Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January -April 2018

Table 3.51. Myanmar agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2018

Table 3.52. CropWatch-estimated maize and rice production for Myanmar in 2018 (thousand tons)