The January-April period covers the sowing season of maize (south/main) as well as the rainfed Rice. During this period, the agroclimatic indicators show that while the temperature and radiation registered a decrease (TEMP -1ºC and RAPDAR -11%), a significant increase in the percentage of Rainfall (RAIN +25%) was verified. The increase in the percentage of rainfall led to an increase in biomass (BIOMASS +21%), as shown in agronomic indicators. However, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) at the same period decreased in 15% due to normal phenology (no crops in the field).

The crop condition development graph show conditions close to both average and 2017. The scenario changed from early March to the end of the monitoring period, when the crop condition was below the average of the previous five years as well as below the five years maximum. While the southern region of the country registered good maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), the northern region - which is currently in its dry season - showed low VCIx (0.5 or below). During this period the maximum VCI was 0.59.  For the entire county, the NDVI clusters show that the crop condition was unfavorable during the entire monitoring period. An increase if 1% in maize production over 2017 is nevertheless expected.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Nigeria is divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ). They are referred to (from north to south and by increasing rainfall) as Sudano-Sahelian, Derived savanna, Humid forest zone, and Guinean savanna. 

A decrease in both agroclimatic (RAIN -7%, TEMP -0.7ºC and RAPDAR -6%) and agronomic (BIOMASS -12%, CALF -13%) indicators was observed in the Sudano Sahelian region. However, since the cropping season in northern Nigeria lasts from June to September, the current values are irrelevant as far as crop production is concerned. They may, however directly and indirectly impact rangelands.

In the Derived Savana region an increase in rainfall (RAIN +24%) was accompanied  by a decrease in temperature and radiation (TEMP -1.1ºC and RAPDAR -14%). The increase in rainfall led to a 25% increase in  BIOMASS. The CALF registered a reduction of 15% and the maximum VCI for this region was 0.63. During this period, the crop condition development was above the average of previous 5 years from mid-February to mid-March, dropping to below the average at the end of April.

The crop condition development for the Humid forest zone region was below the average most of the time during the monitoring period, being above the average of previous 5 years in early of February. The agroclimatic indicators for this region, show an increase in rainfall (RAIN +24%) and a decrease in temperature and radiation (TEMP -1.2ºC and RAPDAR -18%). An increase in biomass production potential (BIOMASS +18%) and a decrease in cropped arable land fraction (CALF -1%) were verified. In this region, the maximum VCI was 0.8.

The crop condition development was below the average of the past five years in the  Guinean savanna region which recorded a large increase in rainfall (RAIN +33%) and drop in both temperature (TEMP -0.9ºC) and  RADPAR (-9%). Compared with the recent 5YA the biomass production potential increased by 23% while CALF decreased by 53%. For this region, the maximum VCI registered was 0.50 on average.

Figure 3.22. Nigeria crop condition, January 2018-April 2018 

(a) Phenology of major crops

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Soudano-Sahelian region (left) and Derived savanna zone region (right)) 

Table 3.39. Nigeria agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values, and departure from 15YA, January 2018-April 2018 

Table 3.40. Nigeria agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values, and departure from 5YA, January 2018-April 2018 

Table 3.41. CropWatch-estimated maize production for Nigeria in 2018 (thousands tons)