The reporting period covers most of the winter wheat cycle from vegetative growth to harvest. It also touches the field preparation and sowing of maize. A national average of 143 mm of rainfall (which is 15% lower than average) fell on mostly irrigated winter crops. TEMP at 16.9 °C was +0.9°C higher than average and RADPAR was near average. BIOMSS accumulation was expected to be 384 gDM/m2, -10% lower than average. NDVI was lower than average throughout the reporting period in most parts of the country. With only 49% of agriculture area being occupied by crops, coupled with a low VCIx of 0.67, prospects for winter wheat are not good.

Regional analysis

To account for the country's large diversity of topography, soil and weather, CropWatch partitions Pakistan into four agro-ecological regions. They are referred to as Balochistan, the Lower Indus river basin, the Northern highlands and Northern Punjab. Balochistan, with only 2 million ha cultivated land is not included in the CropWatch analysis.

The lowest rainfall (52 mm of RAIN, 14% below average) fell over the Lower Indus river basin while Northern Punjab recorded more than twice as much rainfall, which represented nevertheless a deficit of 28% compared with average. The Northern Highlands received the highest rainfall among all the regions (248 mm) which was -15% below average. The Northern highlands were warmer than average (+1.2ºC) while other regions had near average TEMP. All the regions received near average RADPAR and except for the Northern highlands other regions had a reduced biomass production potential (-18%). Actually cropped arable land ranged between 42% (Northern highlands) and 86% remaining within -7% of average. All the three regions had persistently lower than average NDVI, with patches of low as well as high VCIx for an average around 0.80.

All the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators show lower than average values for winter wheat. However, since most of the crop is irrigated, CropWatch project a minor reduction in production (a 1.4% drop below 2017).

Figure 3.23.Pakistan crop condition, January-April 2018 

a) Phenology of major crops

b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                      c) Maximum VCI

d)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       e) NDVI profile  

f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Balochistan Region (left) Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and SindRegion (right))

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands (left) Northern Punjab (right))

Table 3.41. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones,current season values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2018

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Table 3.42. Pakistan, agronomic indicators by agroecological zones,current season values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2018

Table 3.43. CropWatch estimated wheatproduction for Pakistan (1000t) in 2018