The monitoring period covers the cultivation of winter wheat. Relative to average values, rainfall was below (-19%), temperature was close and RADPAR was above by +3%. Resulting from the dry conditions, the potential biomass (BIOMSS) decreased 11%. As shown in the crop condition development graph, national NDVI was below the average of last 5 years from January to April resulting from several frosts episodes. Only about 69.3% of the areas had above average condition in early February, while all the agricultural areas were below the average most of the time. Crop condition generally improved in April and resulted in a favorable VCIx of 0.9. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was slightly below the average. The production of wheat is estimated at 11.9% above 2017 values.

Regional analysis

For the purpose of crop monitoring, Poland can be divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) referred to as Central rye and potatoes area, Northern oats and potatoes areas, Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area, and the Southern wheat and sugarbeet area.

In the Central rye and potatoes area, the condition of crops was below the average of the last 5 years due to low rain (RAIN -19%) which led to a decrease of the biomass production potential (BIOMSS -13%) below the average of the last five-years. RADPAR was slightly above average (+4%). The area has a high CALF (98%) and a favorable VCIx (0.92).

Contrary to the previous AEZ, the Northern oats and potatoes area had close to average RAIN (-1%), TEMP (-0.2ºC) and RADPAR (+1%). The area had a high CALF (94%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.85).

RAIN was 7% below average with average temperature in the Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area, where BIOMSS decreased 4% compared to the last five years. Similar to the other areas, the area has a high CALF (96%) and VCIx (0.91).

The Southern wheat and sugarbeet area recorded a slight but positive temperature departure (TEMP +0.4°C) as well as the largest rainfall deficit (-29%), which led to decreased biomass (BIOMSS -16%) compared to the five-year average. The area has a high CALF (99%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.94).

Overall, drier than usual weather conditions mostly prevailed in central and south of Poland, leading the decreased biomass in the central rye and potatoes area and Southern wheat and sugarbeet area.

Figure 3.25a. Poland phenology of major crops

Figure 3.25b. Poland national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the January to April 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.25c. Poland maximum VCI 

Figure 3.25d. Poland spatial NDVI patterns up to April 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.25f. Central rye and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25g. Northern oats and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25h. Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25i. Southern wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.61. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region,current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2018

Table 3.62. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2018

Table 3.63. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Poland in 2018 (thousands tons)