During the monitoring period, winter wheat was in late dormancy or early spring growth stages and maize was planted from April. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) was low (- 57%) due to the serious snow cover but it will recover with spring. Overall Russia experienced relatively unfavorable climate conditions in these four months because of unusually low temperature (-0.9ºC), even if the rainfall was up 9%; the BIOMSS indicator dropped 9% compared with the last five-year average.

As shown in the NDVI-based crop condition development graph,  values were lower than the average of the last five years. In about 58.5% of the croplands in Russia, mainly in the center (Volga, South Urals and South Siberia), the NDVI was significantly lower than average in January and February. As stressed below in the regional analysis, cold was a major issue in several areas. Compared with the previous season, winter wheat yields are expected to decrease (VCIx=0.67).

Regional analysis

A more detailed analysis is provided for seven agro-ecological zones (AEZ), namely the Kaliningrad oblast (94), the Caucasus (95), the Volga Basin (97), the Central Economic Region (100), the Southern Urals (99), the Southern Siberian area (98), and the Northwest region including Novgorod (101). The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx map.

In the Caucasus, Central Economic Region (CER),  Kaliningrad oblast, Northwest region including Novgorod and Volga Basin regions, rainfall was abundant and the departure from average exceeded 10%. In the Central Economic Region (CER), Northwest region including Novgorod, Southern Siberian area, Southern Urals and Volga Basin, the temperature was low, especially in Southern Siberian area, Southern Urals and Volga Basin (TEMP -11.8°C, -9.4°C, -7.1°C below average, respectively). NDVI also dropped in these areas as shown in Crop condition development graph.

Figure.1  Russia phenology of major crops

Figure.2 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Russia

Figure.3 Maximum VCI

Figure.4 Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Figure.5 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_The Caucasus

Figure.6 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Central Economic Region

Figure.7 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Kaliningrad oblast

Figure.8 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Northwest region including Novgorod

Figure.9 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern Siberian area

Figure.10 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern Urals

Figure.11 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Volga Basin

Table 1. Russia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2018

Table 2. Russia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2018

Table 3. CropWatch-estimated maize and wheat production for Russia in 2018 (thousand tons)