Winter wheat was still in the fields during the monitoring period, while maize and rice were being planted from April. Nationwide, RAIN was close to average and TEMP 2.8℃ above. These favorable climate conditions resulted in the increase of cropped arable land fraction (CALF, +10%) and led to a national average VCIx of 0.92. According to both NDVI profile clusters and map and the VCIx map, spatially coherent below average conditions occur only in south-eastern Anatolia (along the Syrian border) centered around Şanlıurfa and Gaziantep.

CropWatch assesses the crop condition as above the average of the previous five years and puts the yield for wheat 7.5% above the 2017 value, and the cropped area 0.3% above. The resulting wheat production is estimated to be 7.9% up.

Regional analysis

The regional analysis includes four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland zone. 

In the Black Sea zone, crop condition was above 5YA average according to NDVI profiles. The rainfall and the temperature were above average (RAIN +12%, TEMP +2.4℃), which led to favourable BIOMSS (+16%) compared with average. The maximum VCI (VCIx) reached 0.89.

The Central Anatolia zone also enjoyed good crop condition during the reporting period. Rainfall and the temperature were conducive to crop growth (RAIN, +14%; TEMP, +3.0℃). The CALF is up 25%, and so is BIOMSS (+12%). The VCIx was 0.90 in the Central Anatolia zone. 

In the Eastern Anatolia zone, CropWatch puts the crop condition above average, which is confirmed by the NDVI profile. Although the zone experienced a slight drop in rainfall and radiation compared to average, current values remained high (RAIN  278mm,  RADPAR 834 MJ/㎡). The temperature was significantly above average (+3.8℃). Altogether, the biomass and the cropped arable land fraction were above average (BIOMSS, +14%; CALF, +4%). The VCIx was 1.02, the highest on record so far.

As shown in Table 3.74, the Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland zone, recorded temperature 2.2℃ above average. Both rainfall and the radiation have suffered a slight decrease, but current values were still high (RAIN  300mm, RADPAR  799 MJ/㎡). BIOMSS increased 5%, and the CALF rose 4%. VCIx (0.87) and NDVI agree in assessing the crop condition as above average.

Figure 3.29. Turkey crop condition, January 2018-April 2018

(a)Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right)) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.74. Turkey agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January 2018-April 2018.

Table 3.75. Turkey agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departurefrom 5YA, January 2018-April 2018.

Table 3.76 CropWatch estimated wheat production for Tuekey in 2018 (thousands tons)