During the monitoring period, only winter wheat was in the filed while maize will not be  planted until May.

According to the agroclimatic indicators, rainfall was abundant (RAIN 208 mm, +18%), with above average temperature (TEMP, 1.5℃, +0.1℃). At  568 MJ/m² RADPAR was 2% above average, further contributing to providing favorable conditions for crop growth. Agronomic indicators include a favourable maximum vegetation condition index at the national level (VCIx, 0.86). Even if the cropped arable land fraction was just fair (CALF , 69%), overall crop condition was good, which was confirmed by a significant increase for the BIOMSS indicator (778 g DM/m2, +8.2%).

As shown in the crop condition development graph, national NDVI was persistently below the 5-year average until late April, possibly due to temperature. The spatial NDVI pattern also shows that NDVI was consistently lower than the 5-year average during this monitoring period (in about 65.5% of Ukraine, concentrated in northern areas). NDVI recovered to average in late April. According to maximum VCI, the cropped arable land in most central and west area reached 80-100%, while it is 50-80% in the east.

CropWatch predicts that wheat production will increase by 4.1% in 2018.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for for four agroecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area, Northern wheat area, Eastern Carpathian hills, and Southern wheat and maize area.

The Central wheat area (Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad oblasts) received abundant rainfall (RAIN 227mm, +33%), normal temperature (TEMP 0.9℃, -0.2℃) and sunshine (RADPAR 562 gDM/m², +2%). In spite of low CALF (58%, 21% below the 5Y reference), high VCIx (0.87) and BIOMSS (+9%) indicate favorable crop condition.

The Northern wheat area (Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kiev oblasts) experienced basically normal agroclimatic conditions for rainfall (RAIN 180 mm, +6%), temperature (TEMP  0.8℃, -0.1℃) and radiation (RADPAR 553 gDM/m2, +5%). BIOMSS is up 5% above the 5-year average. NDVI,   CALF (0.74) and VCIx (0.89) all indicate favorable condition for crops.

The Eastern Carpathian hills (Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts) were 6% short  in rainfall, but temperature and sunshine were high (TEMP  2.0℃, +0.5℃; RADPAR 580 gDM/m², +4%). Compared with the recent 5YA, agronomic indicators point a good crops with BIOMSS +6%, CALF at 0.97 and VCIx at 0.85.

The Southern wheat and maize area (Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts) recorded substantial rainfall (RAIN 226 mm,+20%), normal temperature (TEMP 2.4℃, +0.2℃) and radiation (RADPAR 586, -1%). Despite low CALF (0.68), VCIx (0.83) and BIOMSS (up 12%) indicate satisfactory output of winter wheat.

Figure 3.30. Ukraine crop condition, January - April 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI (Cebntral wheat area (left) and Northern wheat area (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills (left) and Southern wheat and maize area (right))

Table 3.55. Ukraine agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departure from 15YA, January - April 2018

Table 3.56. Ukraine agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departure from 5YA, January - April 2018

Table Ukraine CropWatch-estimated wheat production for 2018 (thousand tons)