The monitoring period covers the growing stage of winter wheat and the sowing of maize. Crop condition was generally unfavorable. The national average VCIx was 0.63, and the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 26% compared with the 5YA. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN and RADPAR were below average (-11% and-8%), while TEMP increased by 0.7°C. The combination of factors resulted in decreased BIOMSS (-5%) compared to the recent five-year average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average in reporting period.

NDVI cluster graphs and profiles show that 16.6% of the agriculture area had above average conditions from late March to late April. This includes parts of the four eastern provinces (Namangan, Andijon, Quqon and Farghona) where most wheat is produced, and some patches in Kitab, Samarqand, Bukhoro and Guliston provinces. NDVI was below average in the  western provinces and most parts of northern, central and southern provinces. Overall, CropWatch expects a decrease of 7.3% in wheat production compared with last year.

Regional analysis

For the regional analysis, additional detail is provided for two agro-ecological zones in the country: the maize and cereals zone and the cotton zone.

In the maize and cereals zone, NDVI was generally below the five-year average from January to April. The RAIN and RADPAR were 14% and 7% below average (respectively), but TEMP was slightly (0.8°C) above average. The agroclimatic indicators also include a decrease of the BIOMSS index by 11%. 

The western and northern areas of the country constitute the cotton zone. Crop condition was below the five-year average from late January to late April. Accumulated rainfall was above average during the monitoring period (RAIN +49%), radiation and temperature were below average (RADPAR -12% and TEMP -0.5°C). The BIOMSS index increased by 37% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.69, while the cropped arable land decreased by 82%. Overall crop prospects for the region in this season are poor.

Figure 3.32. Uzbekistan crop condition, January-April 2018

 (a). Phenology of major crops

   (b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI      (c) Maximum VCI

    (d) Spatial NDVI patternscompared to 5YA (left)     NDVI profiles (right 

(e) Crop condition development graph based onNDVI (Cotton region (left) (f) Maize and Cereals region (right)

 Table 3.83. Uzbekistan agroclimatic indicatorsby agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from15YA, January - April 2018

Table 3.84. Uzbekistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January- April 2018

Table 3.85. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Uzbekistan in 2018 (thousand tons)