The monitoring period corresponds to the main growing period for maize in South Africa. Favorable conditions prevailed in Free State, Kwa-Zulu Natal, Gauteng, Eastern Cape, North West and Mpumalanga provinces with VCIx between 0.5-0.8, while a large part of the Free State had VCIx above 0.8. Vegetation conditions reflect the agroclimatic conditions that prevailed during this period, essentially average rainfall nationwide (RAIN +2%). The major production regions in the country experienced a slight reduction in temperature not exceeding 1°C. The RADPAR was highest in the Mediterranean zone, where the growing season is just starting.

Agronomic indicators reveal a Biomass reduction in all the zones, with the Mediterranean recording a 12% departure from average. Correspondingly, its CALF dropped by 43% which is of little consequence at this time of the year. CALF in the Humid Cape Fold Mountains increased by 24%, which is far less relevant, in terms of production, than the 6% increment noted in the main rainfed summer maize production zone of the Dry Highveld and Bushveld.

Overall compared to last years production, maize is expected to be quite comparable to last season’s.

Regional analysis

The Mediterranean, Humid Cape Fold Mountains, and Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize zones are the major crop producing agro-ecological zones (AEZs) covered in this analysis.  In the HumidCape Fold Mountains zone, the crop conditions were poor and below average during the monitoring period compared to last season. However, the conditions showed a fairly healthy vegetation status as given by a VCIx of 0.64.

While the season is about to start in the Mediterranean zone, maize has reached the time of harvest in the Dry Highveld and Bushvelds. NDVI profiles were initially poor during initial growth stages but improved and were above average between starting in February, a period corresponding to the active vegetative stages and eventual flowering of most summer maize. This period enjoyed a notable increment in rainfall and temperature. About 18% of the cropped area experienced better conditions compared to the average, especially in Free State and parts of Gauteng Provinces. The VCIx in this zone was 0.70. While some concern may persist for parts of the Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, the overall situation for maize in South Africa is at least fair. 

Figure 3.46. South Africa’s crop condition, January-April 2018

Figure 3.34. South Africa crop condition, January-April 2018

(a). Phenology of major crops

  (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c) Maximum VCI

Table 3.89. January-April 2018 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

Current (mm)

Departure from 15YA (%)

Current (°C)

Departure from 15YA (°C)

Current (MJ/m2)

Departure from 15YA (%)

Humid Cape Fold Mountains

318

-2

21

-0.73

1098

-2

Mediterranean Zone

65

-22

19

-0.50

1285

-3

Dry Highveld and Bushveld

355

2

20

-0.37

1207

-1

Table 3.90. January-April 2018 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA

Region

BIOMSS

CALF

Maximum VCI

Current (gDM/m2)

Departure from 5YA (%)

Current

Departure from 5YA (%)

Current

Humid Cape Fold Mountains

1035

-4

1

24

0.64

Mediterranean Zone

294

-12

0

-43

0.33

Dry Highveld and Bushveld

1180

-1

1

6

0.70

Table 3.91. CropWatch-estimated maize and  wheat production for 2018 (thousand tons)

Production 2017

(thousand tons)

Yield variation (%)

Area variation (%)

Production 2018

(thousand tons)

Production variation (%)

Maize

14161

0

0

13197

0