Mozambique is a mainly agricultural country, with more than 70% of its population living in the rural area spracticing agriculture. According to last agriculture census (2009-2010), there are 3.9 million small-scale farmers in Mozambique who represent 98.6% of the total production of the country. A considerable portion (28%) of these households is female-headed, going up to 40-45 % in Gaza and Inhambane province. These households grow about 5 million hectares of (largely annual)crops, of which 45% is in Nampula and Zambézia. Both Nampula and Zambézia are considered two of the higher food and cash crops productions provinces.

According to data from Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security of Mozambique, Maize, Rice, Sorghum, Cassava,Cotton, and Sugarcane are the main crops grown on several farms. Most farms grow corn (76.86%), 28.74% grow small peanuts, 24.31% cultivate sorghum,16.27%grow rice.

The agriculture predominant are subsistence and mainly characterized by low yields due to the lack of inputs (quality seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation system). The lack of timely and frequently agroclimatic information and analysis also affect the farmers and delay actions. The main season start in October to March. With the large majority of agricultural production being rain-fed. Weather variability is a major factor in determining crop performance. Data available show that the north side of the country tends to have higher rainfall of 150 to 300 mm per month between December and March while the southern part has 50 to 150 mm per month.

National Analysis

The monitoring period covers the sowing and growing season of maize and rice for the north region and growing and starts harvesting season for the central and south region. At the start of the season in late 2017 farmers faced problems with water scarcity in some areas of the south and central parts of the country, especially in the provinces of Gaza, Inhambane, Maputo (north), Tete (south) and parts of Manica and Sofala. Some early crops were lost and had to be replanted. Compared with their averages, the agroclimatic indicators showed a slight increase in rainfall (+1%) and a decrease of both temperature (-0.9ºC) and sunshine(RAPDAR, -2%). BIOMASS rose 2% over the 5YA.

For the current season, Mozambique has experienced below average rainfall in the southern (Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane) and some central parts (Tete and Sofala) provinces, while above average rainfall has been received over the northern (Nampula, Cabo Delgado, and Niassa)provinces. Highlights can be addressed to Tete province where a reduction on rain and temperature (RAIN -24% and TEMP-0.7ºC) and biomass (-17%)were significant when compared to the average of previous fifteen and five years respectively. Nampula and Zambézia, the major producer provinces of the country were below average rainfall.  The other provinces, including, Gaza and Inhambane received favorable rainfall with 12% and 35% above average respectively.

Most parts of the regions received good rains briefly in late January and February. comparing with last 15 years average, From October to early December, the rain was below average and coincides with growth stage. These February rains provided some moisture which contributed slightly to pasture re-growth were still insufficient toeliminate the prevailing rainfall deficits. Dry conditions in the south and some center parts affected maize and rice production. The infestation of Fall Army worm (FAW)in Inhambane, Sofala and Tete provinces, as reported by Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security will further impact the outputs.

The spatial NDVI departure pattern sassociated with the NDVI profiles indicate a variety of behaviors before February, with parts of the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Tete and Inhambane above average and other areas below (only 5.6% of arable land in February). From February, NDVI patterns were remarkably close to average.

The national crop condition development graph based on NDVI show that crop condition was unfavorable from the beginning of the monitoring period. After mid-March, crops recovered and caught up with the five-year average. CALF, the cropped arable land fraction did not register any changes and in most of the areas, favorable vegetation condition prevails with VCIx values situated between 0.8 and 1.0. 

In general, crop condition in Mozambique was slightly below average compared to the same period in the previous years and 5 YA. Compared to the output of 2017, the maize production is expected to increase by 2%.

Provincial analysis

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security of Mozambique, the country has two major production provinces: Zambézia and Nampula classified according to the historical productivity.

Zambézia

According to the crop phenology during the monitoring period, the growing season of maize and rice was ongoing, while their harvesting started in April and will extend to May. Considered to be the one of major production zone in Mozambique, during the period under analysis,the Zambézia Province registered a decrease in rainfall and temperature in 16%and 0.8ºC respectively when compared to the average of previous 15 years while the radiation was about the average of fifteen years. The reduction in rainfall and temperature led to a reduction in biomass (BIOMASS -6%). In contrast, the agro-climatic conditions did not have any impact on the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) which was about the average of previous 5 years.  For this region, better maximum vegetation condition index (VCI=0.94) was verified.

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for this region shows that from early February to mid-March, the crop condition was below the average of previous 5 years as well as the same monitoring period of the year 2017. Afterward, crops situated about the average from mid-March to the end of the monitoring period. In addition, The NDVI clusters show that excepting scatter the area coastal zone, the crop condition was above the average during the entire monitoring period in all province.

In general, the crop condition in Zambézia region was average during the January-April 2018 monitoring period.

Nampula

Nampula province is divided into three agronomic zones: interior, intermediate and coastal zones (south and north).The coastal zone is potential for rice production and the interior zone is potential for maize production and in the intermediate zone, maize can be produced. The productivity of these two crops is very low due to the weak management. In general, the sowing period started from last week of November to the first week of January for maize and from December to January for rice.Maize and rice are cultivated by small farms, where their fields are less than 2 (two) hectares.

Analyzing the agroclimatic indicators, in general, Nampula province registered a decrease in rain and temperature(RAIN-7% and TEMP -0.7ºC) compared with last 15 YA, but the radiation was about the average. The reduction of this factors affected the biomass, which reduced by4% compared to the last 5YA.  According to the average rainfall profile,the rain season started from November and end by April. In the current crop season, rain in Nampula province was below the average of the last 15 years,but above average from first October to end of December, mid-January, and April.

According to the NDVI profiles of Nampula province, the NDVI was below of average of the last 5 years but catch up with the last cropping season from March. The peak of the growing season was at the same level of the five-year average and previous monitoring period.  The Maximum VCI (0.93) indicates good crop condition. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased in 3% compared with last 5 YA, and this will cover the decrease of biomass. Most parts of Nampula recorded high VCIx values, but in the western part of the province(Malema, Ribaue, and Murrupula) shows slightly lower values.

In general, the province was below average weather conditions for crop growth during the current season, but the production will be compensated by the increase of crop arable land fraction.

Figure. Mozambique crop condition, Janury-April 2018

a) Crop Phenology

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA             (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left: Zambézia, right: Nampula)

(g) Mozambique decade rainfall profile               (h) Nampula decade rainfall profile

(i) Zambezia decade rainfall profile

Table 1.Mozambique agroclimatic indicators by major production zones, current seasonvalues, and departure from 15YA, January 2018-April 2018

Table 2.Mozambique agronomic indicators by major production zones, current seasonvalues, and departure from 5YA, January 2018-April 2018

  Table 3. Maize production in 2018 for Mozambique