Farmers start to sow "short rain" crops in October and November, depending on the timing of the rains, to be harvested late January or February. "Long rains" start during the last third of the reporting period, to be harvested over the next reporting period, sometimes as late as early July or later, depending on location and, especially, elevation. Beans and short-cycled and drought staples (sorghum, millets)  are usually planted early, including in the lowlands. Maize (the main cereal) is a typical long rains crop; it is cultivated in much of southern Kenya. Wheat (the second cereal crop in terms of production) is grown mostly in the high elevation areas of the south-west where seasons can be longer than six months.

At  522 mm, the current nationwide rainfall exceeded the average by 70%, which is significant. The average temperature (22.3℃) was below average by 1.4 ℃ and so was RADPAR (1224 MJ/m², or -7%). Due to abundant precipitation, BIOMSS reached 1245 (g DM /m²), an increase of about 33% above the 5-years average. The current cropped arable land fraction is 0.99, 5% above the 5YA and  VCIx is about 1.0, indicating the best crops of the recent years.

According to clusters and the map of NDVI profiles, crop condition was below average until mid-February, which indicates a poor short rains crops at the time of harvest. This is confirmed by the national graph of crop condition development which stayed below average and below 2017 values until February. Thereafter, NDVI jumped to high values with the start of the long rains, except in limited areas which make up just 11.5% of croplands.  For the time being, NDVI profiles and VCIx agree: with few exceptions, rather good wheat and maize crops are expected from the major production areas. With yield up 27.5%  and a 4.7% increase in cultivated area, CropWatch puts the long rains output 32.9% above the 2017 production..

Figure . Kenya's crop condition, January 2018 - April 2018.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI profiles

Table Kenya's CropWatch-estimated Maize production for 2018 (thousand tons)