Winter wheat is sown between October and December to be harvested during the early summer months.

NDVI values close to 0.5 and generally below average and below 2017 experienced a sudden drop at the end of February. In the middle of March, values started to rise but were still lower than both 2017 and average at the end of the reporting period. Rainfall (186 mm) was well below average (-40%), the temperature was average; RADPAR (657 MJ/m²) was 8% below average as well. s a result, BIOMSS dropped 7% and VCIx was relatively low (0.73).

Italy can be divided into three regions based on the spatial variation patterns of NDVI: (1) the Po valley, (2) the Adriatic coast and adjacent southern Campania around Avellino province  and (3) most of the Tyrrhenian coast, southern Italy and the islands (Sicily and Sardinia). Most of Tuscany appears as a patchwork of (1) and (3). (1) The northern Po basin had almost average NDVI throughout the reporting period (21,3% or arable land) while the southern part of the basin (about 20% of arable lands) had stable below average NDVI with the departure varying from about -0.10 to about -0.05 at the end of April. The area had mixed VCIx values and crop condition. (2) The Adriatic coast and the east of Cuneo province (Upper Po valley), representing together 28.9% of arable land experienced  a drop in NDVI around the end of February. The low values persisted throughout the reporting period in the upper Po valley. VCIx was mostly average (0.5 to 0.8) along the coast but high in the south (1.0 and above), indicating favourable crops.  (3) Southern Italy and the islands (29.7% or arable lands) had average NDVI with a short lived positive departure peak (+0.075) at the end of January. There are some patches of low VCIx in Sicily and some high values in Sardinia. 

The current crop condition appears to be below average. If the water supply situation does not improve after April, CropWatch expects a decrease in winter wheat production of 5.3% compared with 2017 values.

Figure  Italy's crop condition, January 2018 - April 2018.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA.                                       (e) NDVI profiles.

TableItaly’s CropWatch-estimated Maize production for 2018 (thousand tons)