Overall agro-climatic conditions were unfavorable for winter wheat in major production zones, resulting in a 1.4% decrease of yield compared to the 2016-2017 season. Winter wheat production is forecast at 112.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.3 million tons or 2.8% below the 2016-2017 winter season (table 4.2). The total planted area is 23,218 thousand hectares, 1.4% down from 2016-2017. Among the major winter wheat producing provinces, the area decreased by 1% for Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong and Henan and decreased by 2% in Sichuan. In Anhui, 2016-17 and 2017-18 hectarages were similar but they decreased 1% in Jiangsu. The largest increase of winter wheat hectarage was observed in the provinces of Shanxi(+3%)  and Shaanxi (+5%). The previous Bulletin had already mentioned the delayed sowing of winter crops in Anhui and Henan provinces. The area, however, remained stable because farmers planted a late sowing wheat variety as a replacement. The largest drop of winter wheat yield (5%) was observed in Shandong province mainly due to the late breaking of dormancy. Winter wheat yield for Hebei, Henan, Hunan and Sichuan dropped slightly (1%) compared to 2016-2017. Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shaanxi and Gansu enjoyed favourable conditions after over-wintering and yields are expected to be up between 2% and 6% from the previous year.

The largest winter wheat production inter-annual change (+11%) occurred in Shaanxi as a result of both increased planted area and yield. Other provinces with large production increases includes Shanxi (5%, due to both increased planted area and the yield), Anhui (5% because of increased yield), and Gansu (7%, due to both decreased planted area and the yield). Jiangsu (+4%) and Chongqing (+1%) mainly contributed by increased yield. The top three winter wheat producing provinces (Henan, Shandong and Hebei) all suffered from unfavorable conditions and report large production drop of 2%, 6% and 2%, respectively. Hebei mainly suffered from drought while the decreased production for Shandong and Henan was mostly due to the delay of crop development.

Table 4.2. China, 2018 winter wheat area, yield,and production and percentage difference with 2017, by province

Note:* National total production does not include Taiwan province.

In China, winter wheat represents almost 92% of the total output for winter crops. For 2018, CropWatch puts the total winter crop production at 122.8 million tons, a 2.8 percent decrease from the 2017’s bumper production (table 4.3). Due to the low return from winter wheat and rapeseed cultivation, farmers have reduced areas by 1.6% nationwide. Some farmers in lower Yangtze River region decide to keep the field fallow during winter and plant single rice after spring. The most significant drop of winter crop area occurred in Sichuan province (-2%). Favorable conditions in the Loess Region benefited the crops there and both planted area and yield were up from the previous year resulting in the largest production increase for Shanxi, Shaanxi and Gansu (Area up 3% in  Shanxi, 5% inr Shaanxi and 1% in Gansu; Yield up 2% in  Shanxi, +7% in Shaanxi and +6% in Gansu). Yield increased by 3% for both Jiangsu and Anhui thanks to favorable climatic condition which compensated the decreased hectarage. It is worth mentioning that the top two winter crop producing provinces suffered drops in winter wheat output (Henan 6%, Shandong 2%). As a result, the national winter crop production dropped from the previous years high output.

A caveat, however: depending on weather conditions during the grain-filling stage, production of winter wheat and total winter crop output could be revised up or down in the final CropWatch estimate, which will be published in the next bulletin.

Table 4.3. China, 2018 winter crops production (thousand tons) and percentage difference with 2017, by province

Note: * National total production does not include Taiwan province.