Grain import and export in the first quarter of 2018

Rice

The total imports of rice by China amounted to 0.7752 million tons, a decrease of 11.0% compared to the previous year. The rice mainly stems from Vietnam (46.9% of imports), Thailand (32.3%) and Pakistan (12.3%). The expenditure for rice import was US$426 million. Total exports over the period were 337,100 tons, mainly to the Republic of Korea, Côte d'Ivoire, and Mozambique (24.3%, 14.2%, and 12.8%, respectively). The value of the export was US$182 million.

Wheat

Chinese wheat imports totaled 0.6417 million tons, down by 40.6% year-on-year. The main sources include Australia (28.1%) , Kazakhstan(19.0%), and the United States (11.5%). Imports amounted to US$186 million. Wheat exports (90,400 tons) went mainly to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (76.4%) and Hong Kong (19.4%). The  generated income for wheat export was US$38 million.

Maize

Maize imports reached 557,300 tons, an increase of 81.8% over 2017. The main suppliers were Ukraine and the United States, accounting for 95.4% and 3.2% of imports respectively. Imports amounted to US$116 million. The United States (42.9%), Canada (28.6%), and France (14.3%) were the main destinations of Chinese maize exports, which reached to 700 tons for a value of US$0.2343 million.

Soybean

In the first quarter of 2018, the total imports of soybean were up 0.2% to 19,566,800 tons. Brazil and the United States respectively contributed 58.7% and 35.4%, for a total value of US$8216 million. Soybean exports were 30,800 tons, down 5.2%.

Trade prospects for major grains in China for 2018

Based on the latest monitoring results, China grain imports are projected to increase. The projections are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

Rice

According to the model forecast, rice imports and exports will increase by 5.6% and 24.7% respectively in 2018. Due to the price differences at home and abroad, the low production cost of the main import sources (Vietnam , Cambodia, Pakistan and others), and the influence of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Agreement, rice imports in 2018 will maintain their growth momentum within the quota range.

Wheat

Wheat imports are projected to increase by 3.4%, while exports will decrease by 7.8%. As a result of the relaxed pattern of global supply and demand, global wheat price increased only slightly. However, due to the persistence of the wheat price difference at home and abroad wheat imports will increase slightly in  2018.

Maize

The model forecasts an increase of maize imports (+24.6%) in 2018, while exports decrease 9.4%. At present, global supply and demand of maize is relaxed, and prices are on a downward trend. Due to the strong demand by the livestock industry, maize imports are expected to increase in 2018.

Soybean

Soybean imports and exports will decrease by 0.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Under the influence of insufficient domestic production and other factors, imports will remain high. However, under in response to  the structural adjustment policies for planting and the changing international context, soybean imports in China will decrease slightly in 2018.

Figure 4.18. Rate of change (%) of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2018 compared to those for 2017.