The main crops of Australia are wheat and barley, which are normally planted  from the end of April to July to be harvested from October to January. The crop condition during the currently monitored period was mixed. The national NDVI profile showed around one month delay of sowing due to rather late and insufficient rainfall (RAIN, -45%), although the temperature (TEMP, -0.4°C) and sunshine (RADPAR, +1%) were average. The VCIx was rather low at 0.27 during the planting season of wheat and barley. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) attained 86%, 4% below the five-year average.

The spatial NDVI pattern further showed that the central and southern New South Wales and some parts of north-east Victoria experienced severely lagged behind average growing conditions of the last 5 years, with the VCIx below 0.5. The below average crop condition of New South Wales and Victoria was due to poor rainfall (RAIN, -56% and -41%), as the States recorded average temperature (TEMP, 0.5°C and 0.1°C) and radiation (RADPAR, 6% and 0%). The resulting BIOMSS drop is 48% and 32%, respectively.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, five sub-national regions can be distinguished for Australia, which are relevant for crops cultivation. These five regions are the Southeastern wheat zone, Southwestern wheat zone, Arid and semi-arid zone, Wet temperate and subtropical zone, and Subhumid subtropical zone.

The Southeastern wheat zone experienced severely delayed growing conditions, starting with planting, which closely followed the national NDVI profile. The region recorded a severe 43% deficit in rainfall with rises in  temperature (+0.3°C) and RADPAR (+3%), resulting in BIOMSS being 36% below the recent average. CALF nevertheless remained surprisingly high (95%) and the same as the five-year average.

The southwestern wheat zone showed below average condition but with no sowing delay according to the regional NDVI profile: below average from April to June and close to average in July. The region had the least severe rainfall deficit (-23%), with stable temperature and radiation. The weather based potential biomass was 20% below the five-year average. The region was the only one in the country where CALF increased (+4%). The situation is confirmed by the NDVI cluster maps in the Western Australia region.

The crop condition in the country's arid and semi-arid zone displayed below average values. The regional NDVI profile was close to average in April but dropped below average thereafter, resulting from the insufficient rainfall (-49%), again combined with average TEMP and RADPAR. The potential biomass was 25% below average. CALF was 76%, and VCIx reached 0.73, indicating that lower rainfall has caused some adverse effect on the crops.

The crop condition in the wet temperate and subtropical zone appeared below average according to the regional NDVI profile during this period: below average from April to June but recovering to 5-year average in July. The region was 35% deficient in rainfall with marginally above average temperature (TEMP, +0.1°C) and stable radiation. BIOMSS was 37% below average. The area had high CALF (98%) with low VCIx (0.36), indicating a high cropped area but mediocre prospects.

Crops in Australia's subhumid subtropical zone showed generally below average condition during the whole monitored period, which was possibly related to the sowing delay caused by extreme drought mentioned above. Rainfall underwent a severe deficit of 63% with normal temperature and RADPAR, resulting in BIOMSS falling 55%. The area also experienced a low CALF (53%) as well as poor VCIx (0.3), indicating  below average cropped area and unfavorable production  prospects, which deserves close monitoring in the coming months.

On the whole, CropWatch estimates the wheat production of Australia will decrease by 19.7% in 2018 with a yield decrease of 9.7% and an area decrease of 11.1%, compared with 2017.

Figure 3.6. Australia crop condition, April-July 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                        (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southeastern wheat zone (left) and Southwestern wheat zone (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid zone (left) and Wet temperate and subtropical zone (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone)

Table 3.x. Australia April-July 2018 agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.x. Australia April-July 2018 agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA

Table 3.x. Australia CropWatch-estimated wheat production for 2018 (thousand tons)