This bulletin covers the harvesting of summer crops (maize, soybean and rice) in most areas of Brazil except for north-east where maize is still at peak growing stage.  After sowing from the end of April, wheat is currently at early to peak of growing season. 

Generally, crop condition in Brazil was average compared to the same period in the previous five years. The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show below average weather conditions compared with average (15YA) with 16% below average rainfall (308 mm) and 0.4 °C below average temperature (24.1 °C). Together with 2% above average radiation, BIOMSS was 18% lower than the previous five years average. Most states received below average rainfall except for Goias where rainfall was 8% above average. Five major states including Mato Grosso Do Sul, Minas Gerais, Parana, Santa Catarina, and Sao Paulo are suffering from drought with more than 30% rainfall deficit compared with 15YA. Shortage of rainfall in those states hampered the Biomass accumulation as indicated by the significant negative departure. However, since summer crops were at maturity and harvesting stage during the monitored period, the low rainfall does not have much impacts on the crop outputs. 

Overall crop conditions in Brazil were slightly below average according to the national NDVI profile for Brazil from April to July 2018. NDVI departures cluster and the map show spatial and temporal diversity of crop condition during the monitoring period. Over more than half of croplands conditions were average with above average crops (16%) mostly distributed in coastal areas and Mato Grosso. Crops with below average condition concentrated in western Sao Paulo and neighboring regions. National maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) presents same spatial pattern with lower value only in Parana River zone. Average VCIx value for Brazil was 0.90 during the monitoring period. Almost 99% of arable land was cultivated, 0.4% above 5YA.

Maize and soybean production for Brazil is revised down at 85482 ktons and 96311 ktons, 1 million tons down from the previous forecast but still slightly above previous year. Rice production is revised up at 3% above 2017 or 11666 ktons thanks to the favorable conditions in Rio Grande Do Sul. Wheat production is projected at 8205 ktons, 1% more than 2017 wheat outputs. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones are identified for Brazil. They include the Amazonas (18), Central Savanna (19), Eastern coastal zone (20), Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (21), Mato Grosso (22), Nordeste (23), Parana basin (24), and Southern subtropical rangelands (25). 

Over the recent reporting period, only one AEZ (Amazonas) received above average rainfall (+7%). RAIN in Central Savana, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Mato Grosso and Southern Subtropical rangelands was close to average while the remaining three AEZs suffered from water shortage, ranging from 17% to 49%. Three AEZs including Nordeste, Parana Basin, and Southern Subtropical rangelands experienced close to average temperature while other AEZs experienced lower temperature. Favorable temperature conditions were beneficial for crops because they lengthened the period for dry matter distribution to seeds. 

The variation of weather conditions among AEZs distributes the crop condition into different categories: (1) well below average condition were observed in Amazonas, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Parana Basin, and Southern subtropical rangelands mainly due to the continous unfavorable conditions; Among those AEZs, Parana Basin presents the worst situation but VCIx was still at 0.87; (2) Central Savana and Mato Grosso presented average condition thanks to the average and stable weather conditions; (3) even the rainfall during the monitoring period is lower than average; crops in Nordeste and Eastern coastal zones were at above average condition as indicated by the above average NDVI peak resulting mainly from adequate rainfall during the previous monitoring period. 

                                                                  (a)  Crop calendar for Brazil

(b)   Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil                     (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles                                   (e)  NDVI profile

(f)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Amazonas (right) Central Savanna (left)

(g)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (right) Mato Grosso(left)

(h)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Nordeste (right)  Parana basin (right)

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Southern subtropical rangelands (left)r Eastern coastal zone (right)

Table 3.10. Brazil agro-climatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess anddeparture from 15YA, April - July 2018

Table 3.11. Brazilagronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess anddeparture from 5YA, January – April 2018

Table 3.12.CropWatch-estimatedwheat production for Brazil in 2018 (thousand tons)