The current reporting period covers both the harvest of winter wheat and the early development of summer crops. Rainfall was below the recent 15-years average in most of Canada (RAIN, -18%). Both the temperature and radiation were almost average (TEMP, -0.1°C; RADPAR, +1%), and the maximum VCI value was 0.92. Because of the insufficient rainfall, the potential biomass was slightly below the recent 5-years average (BIOMSS, -10%). 

Based on the NDVI profiles and crop condition clusters, crop growth conditions were below those of both the last year and recent 5-years average from April to June, and improved in July. This was mostly the result of poor growth conditions of winter wheat. Most of Canada had VCIx greater than 0.8, but values were below in the middle-southern Prairies. 

Both agro-climatic and remote sensing indicators show crop condition that could be slightly below the average of the recent 5-years average. In particular, the conditions in three main production provinces of Canada were unsatisfactory, with below average rainfall and biomass production potential: Alberta -17% and -12 %, respectively; Manitoba -22% and -17% and Saskatchewan -24% and  -19%.

As a result, the overall condition of winter wheat in Canada was poor, and the summer crops, except the spring wheat, also had worrying early stages. CropWatch predicts that the crop production of Canada is unlikely to reach 2017 levels.

Regional analysis

The Prairies (area identified as 30 in the maximum VCI map) and Saint Lawrence basin (26, covering Ontario and Quebec) are the major agricultural regions.

The rainfall in the Prairies, the main food production area in Canada, was below average (RAIN 215 mm, -22%), while both the temperature and radiation were almost normall (TEMP, 0.1°C; RADPAR, +1%). Due to the poor rainfall, the potential biomass was below the 5-years average (BIOMSS, -17%). According to the NDVI profiles, the growth condition of winter wheat was generally worse than the 5YA, which is likely to lead to a reduction of production. At the same time, the summer crops also experienced an unfavorable start.

The rainfall of the Saint Lawrence basin was below average (RAIN 268 mm, -22%) as well, but temperature was almost average (-0.3°C), and the radiation was above average (+4%). The potential biomass was below the average (BIOMSS, -12%). The NDVI profiles also indicated that the crop conditions were poor from April to June, which was the end of the growth period of winter wheat. This was similar to the Prairies subregion, but the condition of summer crops in July was almost equal to the recent 5-years maximum. 

Overall, the crop condition of Canada is mixed: the winter wheat was probably poor but spring wheat could be fine; other summer crops still have chance to improve if the weather becomes favorable. Current CropWatch estimates indicate a slightly increase in wheat production (30,741 ktons, 0.2% above 2017), and drops in maize (11,387 ktons, -4.2% below 2017) and soybean (5,183 ktons, -5.3% below 2017).

Figure 3.14. Canada’s crop condition, April-July 2018

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                     (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (g))

Table 3.14. April – July 2018 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.15. April – July 2018 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA

Table 3.16. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for 2018 (thousand tons)