Country analysis

Ethiopia experiences two main agricultural seasons: Meher and Belg.  Meher is the main crop season and farmers cultivate cereals like, wheat, teff, maize and barley. This reporting period corresponds to Belg harvesting time and Meher land preparation and planting (the season covers crops harvested from August to the end of December). Agroclimatic indicators were below average (RAIN - 9%, TEMP -0.4°C), and radiation (RADPAR) was stable, resulting in a minor BIOMSS potential drop of 2% compared to average. On average, VCIx was 0.87 with about half of cropped areas at values lower than 0.8. VCIx exceeding 1, indicating unusually favourable conditions was mostly distributed in small regions along eastern and central part Oromia and northern Tigray. National NDVI values were below average. According to spatial NDVI departure clusters areas with above average NDVI (about 24.5% of arable lands) are located in the central Oromia region, which is coincident with the high VCIx values. Generally, based on below average indicators the crop outlook was unfavorable.The production of wheat is estimated to decreased by 3.8 % and Maize decreased by 6.6% during the 2018 production year.  

Regional analysis

Ethiopia can be subdivided into five agro-ecological zones: the semi-arid pastoral zone, southeastern highlands, southeastern mixed-maize zone, western mixed maize regions, and central-northern maize-teff highlands.

In the Western mixed maize zone,  maize was the most cultivated crop during the Belg and early meher seasons. Agroclimatic variables were below average with RAIN -14%, TEMP -0.3°C and RADPAR -1%, which resulted in a BIOMSS drop of  7%. Overall,even though the maximum VCIx at 0.91% was good, the NDVI-based Crop condition development graphs was below average to that of past five years average.Base on the agreements of agronomic and Agro climatic indicators with addition to the NDVI based crop condition development over all the western maize zone there was no favorable condition. In general, during the reported period the crop Phenology of planting of Meher and harvest of Belg was Not conducive.

South-eastern Mendebo highlands 

The southeastern Mendebo highlands are major maize and teff producing areas. It received 473 mm with slight above average of rainfall (RAIN, 1%). Hence the temperature was decreases by 0.6 oc from average. There was no reduction in RADPAR. Due to slight above average of rainfall The Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) dropped 3% below the recent five-year average. Even though during the reported period the AEZ had maximum VCIx at 0.97, the NDVI crop condition development graph still decribed the temporal difference: above average during April and May, and below average from Mid -May to end of July during the grain filing stage. Over all the NDVI crop condition graph was below the five years average.In this highland zone the crop condition was not favorable to harvest good yield and will not expect to to get more yield than before during meher.

South-eastern mixed maize zone

The average rainfall was 497 mm (15% above average), the temperature was below average by 0.6. the RADPAR for both zones was about 1% below average and the BIOMSS index shows an increasing of 5% in central Oromia and eastern Amhara as The NDVI-based Crop condition development graphs indicate that from April it was rise up and drops in June as below average condition. in this zone there was also a maximum VCIx value at 0.92%. In general, based on the Agronomic and Agro Climatic indicators was Slightly increasing from average, but the NDVI profile was below average, therefore, the Crop condition was good based the agreement of the indicators

Semi-arid pastoral

 The semi-arid pastoral zone commonly known by livestock production. Small semi-arid pastoral region suffered a drop-in rainfall and sunshine (RAIN -2% and TEMP -0.7°C), while The RADPAR did not register any changes compared to the Recent five-year average. The biomass in this region was increased by 2% and cropped arable land fraction (CALF) dropped by 3% below the recent five-year average. The maximum VCIx reached From the NDVI-based Crop condition development graphs, In this zone indicate below average conditions during the reported period, especially in the grain filling stage during the belg season. Over all The situation and the agreement of the agroclimatic, Agronomic indicators and the NDVI based crop condition development graph there was unfavorable condition.

Central-northern maize-teff highlands

The main crops of this area in the central north highland as assigned as 40 in the VCIx map. In this zone the rainfall was below average by 10%. As a result of below average rainfall the BIOMSS production was dropped by 3%. and the Temperature was also below average (TEMP, -0.4oc) with remains constant of RADPAR. Crop condition was below average according to the NDVI development graph, an observation confirmed by the decrease of BIOMSS by -3% compared to average. Even though,this Central-northern maize-teff highlands was had maximum VCIx value at 0.84, based on the Agronomic and agro climatic indicators and the NDVI crop condition development graph over all the outlook was not conducive.

                                               Figure 3.17. Ethiopia’s crop condition, April-July 2018

                                             (a). Phenology of major crops

                        (b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                    (C) Maximum VCI                 

      (d) spatial NDVI patterns compare to 5 YA                (e) NDVI profiles 

   (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central- northern maize teff highlands  and (g) south-eastern  Mendebo hilands))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi-arid pastoral  and (i) Western Mixed maize zone))

  (j).  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, south eastern mixed maize zone

Table 3.19. Ethiopia agro climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values ​​and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.20. Ethiopia, agronomic indicators bysub-national regions, current season's values ​​and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018

3.28 the Table. CropWatch-Wheat and Maize Production Estimated for Ethiopia in 2018 (Thousand tons)