Crops showed unfavorable condition over the reporting period in the United Kingdom. Currently, most of the winter wheat and oats and all the winter barley and winter rape have been harvested, while spring barley is in the vegetative stage. Compared to average, rainfall decreased (RAIN -15.4%) with below average biomass (BIOMSS -13%). Both radiation and temperature were above average (RADPAR +4% and TEMP +1.6°C). 73.2% of arable land had below average NDVI, while slightly higher than average NDVI occurred from April to June in Norfolk,Essex, southern Cambridgeshire, Huntingdonshire, Northamptonshire and Rutland, Leicestershire, Dorset, Somerset, Gloucestershire and Worcestershire. Due to reduced rainfall, the national NDVI values dropped to below average from June to July. The national average of VCIx (0.91) was above average, and cropped arable land fraction remained unchanged compared with five-year average. CropWatch estimates wheat production to decrease 1.7% below 2017 values (yield down 2.6%, area up 1.0%).                    

Regional analysis

CropWatch has adopted three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) to provide a more detailed analysis for the country. They include the central sparse crop region (covering northern England, Wales, and northern Ireland), the northern barley region (Scotland and northern England), and the southern mixed wheat and barley region (southern England). All three regions are characterized by unchanged fractions of arable land (CALF) compared to average.

In the Main barley region, the NDVI was close to average from April to June, and below average from late June to July according to the crop condition graphs. Agroclimatic conditions include below average rainfall and biomass (RAIN -13% and BIOMSS -9%), and above average TEMP (+1.0°C) and radiation (+2.9%). The VCIx was generally good at 0.89.

The Central sparse crop region is one of the country's major agricultural regions in terms production volume. NDVI values were close to average from April to May and below average between early June to July according to the region’s crop condition development graph. Agronomic conditions were below average for RAIN (-17%) and BIOMSS (-12%); TEMP and RADPAR were significantly above average (1.2°C and 3.5%). The VCIx (0.90) was well above average.

In the Southern mixed wheat and barley zone, NDVI was below average from late June to July and close to average April to June according to the crop condition graph. Rainfall and biomass fell by 17%, while temperature (TEMP, +2.2°C) and radiation (RADPAR  +5%) were significantly above average. The region had above average VCIx (0.90).

Figure 3.19. United Kingdom crop condition, April-July 2018 

                                                                                (a). Phenology of major crops    

                 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI 

                               (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles    

 (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sparse crop area of N England, Wales and N. Ireland (left) and Northern Barley region (right)) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley region) 

Table 3.32. United Kingdom’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018 

Table 3.33. United Kingdom’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018 

Table 3.34. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for United Kingdom in 2018 (thousand tons)