During the monitoring period, the harvest of the main rice and maize crops was completed, and the secondary rice is growing. The area of cropped arable land (CALF) in the country is comparable to the five-year average. All agroclimatic indicators were below average (RAIN - 10%, TEMP -0.6°C) and sunshine, expressed as RADPAR -2%, which brought about a decrease of crop production potential of 8%.  This leads to unrealistically low values in the national NDVI development graph compared to the recent five-year average from April to July. According to NDVI profiles, crop condition in 54.5% of the arable land around the country was slightly below average. In 16.4% of the country (mostly in Sumatera Utara, Riau, Sumatera Barat and Jambi) NDVI deteriorated in the middle of this monitoring period and then slightly improved in July. In other areas, NDVI fluctuated over a large range, possibly due to cloudiness. Although the agroclimatic indicators showed somewhat unfavorable conditions, considering the favorable maximum VCIx value of 0.93, the national production is anticipated to be below but close to average in 2018. 

Regional analysis

For more spatial detail, CropWatch also prepares a regional analysis for four agro-ecological zones within the country, namely Sumatra (64), Java (the main agricultural region in the country, 62), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (63) and West Papua (65), among which former three are relevant for crops cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

The weather of Java was exceptionally dry compared with average (RAIN, -58%), while, temperature (TEMP, -0.3℃) was slightly below average and radiation (RADPAR 5%) was well above average. Due to the deficit of rainfall, biomass production potential in this region suffered a significantly decreased of 47%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below the 5-year reference. Overall, the crop condition in Java was unfavorable.

The agroclimatic conditions of Sumatra follow the same patterns as the country as a whole: accumulated rainfall (RAIN -10%) , temperature (TEMP  -0.8℃ ) and radiation (RADPAR -6%) were all nbelow average, resulting in the biomass production potential decrease in this region (BIOMSS -7%). Overall, the crop condition in Sumatra was unfavorable. 

Kalimantan and Sulawesi experienced unfavorable agroclimatic conditions, with rainfall and radiation dropping 10% and 6%, repectively, which lead to a decrease of biomass production potential by 7% compared to the recent five-year average. Crop condition in Kalimantan and Sulawesi was unfavorable.

Considering that all the arable land was cultivated, CropWatch anticipates that the yield of maize and rice in Indonesia in 2018 will decrease by 0.1% and 2.5%, respectively.

                                 Figure 3.21. Indonesia’scrop condition, April -July 2018

                                           (a). Indonesia phenology of major crops

(b). Indonesia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA(right) and (c)maximum Indonesia VCI for April-July 2018 by pixel(left)

(d)  Indonesia spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

(f) Sumatra(Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI (right)  and (g) ava(Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(h)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Kalimantan-Sulawesi

Figure 3.15h. Kalimantan and Sulawesi (Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.32. Indonesia agroclimaticindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.33. Indonesia agronomicindicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from5YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.34. CropWatch-estimated maize and rice production for Indonesia in 2018 (thousands tons)