Crop condition from April to July 2018 was generally above average in Iran. During the report period, winter wheat was harvested from June to July, and the summer crops (potato and rice) were planted from April. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, -10%), temperature (TEMP, -0.4°C) and radiation (RADPAR, -5%) were below average during the monitoring period. The unfavorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in a decrease in the BIOMSS index by 2% compared to the five-year average. The national average of maximum VCI index was 0.73, but the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 27% compared to the recent five-year average.  

According to the national NDVI development graphs, crop condition was above or close to average throughout the monitoring period in about 31.4% of croplands, mainly in Kurdistan, Zanjan, East and West Azerbaijan provinces of the north-western region. Crop condition in about 17.1% of arable land, particularly in Ardabil and Golestan provinces, was above average from March to May and then dropped to below average.  About 51.5% of arable land experienced unfavorable crop condition from April to July. 

Overall, crop condition was fair in Iran during the monitoring season. The increase of both wheat area (+1.3%) and yield (+7.4%) resulted in a increase production by 8.8% compared to last year. The rice production in 2018 was forecast to increase slightly by 2.9% than 2017 due to the increase of rice area (+5.0%). 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north, and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains. 

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, the accumulated rainfall was 85mm, which is 17% below average. Temperature (TEMP -0.3°C) and radiation (RADPAR -5%) were below average as well. The unfavorable weather conditions resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 5% compared to the recent five years average. The CALF increased by 30%. According to the NDVI profiles, the crop condition was close to or above average during the monitoring period. The national maximum VCI (VCIx) with 0.83 also indicates favorable crop condition. The outcome for winter and summer crops of this season was favorable in this region. 

Crop condition in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region was far below average. The region received only 62 mm rainfall during this report period. The CALF was 5% and decreased by 35% compared to five-year average, and the national VCIx (0.37) was lower. Therefore, the outcome for winter and summer crops of this region was very poor.

Figure 3.23. Iran’s cropcondition, April -July 2018

                                 (a)  Iran phenology of major crops

(b)  Iran national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) (right)  and (c) maximumIran maximum VCI for April-July 2018 by pixel(left)

d. Iran spatial NDVI patterns for April-July 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right)

(e) Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI (right) and  (f)  Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left)

Table 3.38. Iran agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.39. Iran agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.40. CropWatch-estimated rice and wheat productionfor Iran in 2018 (thousands tons)