The monitoring period covers spring wheat, barley, and other cereals, which were sowed before June in Kazakhstan. During the reporting period, crop condition in the country was generally favorable. The national average VCIx was 0.87 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction decreased by 4% compared to the five-year average. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN and BIOMSS were above average (+10% and +8%), while TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-1.6°C and -3%). As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average from April to June and above from the beginning of July. The spatial NDVI pattern and profile show that the crop condition in 57.5% of the cropped areas was above average in the north part of West Kazakhstan, Aktobe and Pavlodar, most parts of Qostanay, North Kazakhstan, Akmola, Kostanay, East Kazakhstan, Almaty provinces and some parts of South Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, and Qyzylorda provinces from late June to July. CropWatch wheat production estimates are 1.9% below last year's output because of the decrease of a wheat area by 5.3%.

 Regional analysis

For the regional analysis, additional details are provided for four agro-ecological zones in the country: Northern region, Eastern plateau and southeastern region, South region and Central and non-agriculture region. The following are crop condition analyses for these regions.

In the Northern region crop condition was below the five-year average from April to June and above from July.  RAIN was above average (+7%), and TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-1.9°C and -4%, respectively). BIOMSS  increased by 7% in this zone. The maximum VCI index was 0.87, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 5% compared to the recent five-year average. Overall, the outcome for the crops will be favorable in this region.

NDVI was generally below the five-year average from April to July in the Eastern plateau and southeastern region. RAIN was 15% above average, but TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-1.0°C and -2%). The agroclimatic indicators also resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 10%. The maximum VCI index was 0.89, while the cropped area increased by 2% compared to the five-year average. Overall crop prospects are fair.

In the Southern region, NDVI was generally below the five-year average from April to June but close to average from late June to July. RAIN was above average (+13%), while TEMP and RADPAR were below (-1.1°C and -1%). The agroclimatic conditions resulted in a BIOMSS increase of 14%. VCIx reached 0.80, and the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased by 1% compared to the five-year average. Overall crop prospects for this region are normal and below 2017.

Central non-agriculture region

In this region, NDVI was below the five-year average during a reporting period. RAIN and TEMP were below average (-2% and -0.9°C) and RADPAR was above (+2%); BIOMSS decreased by 1%. The maximum VCI index was 0.67, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction decreased by 16% compared to the recent five-year average. Overall, the outcome for the crops will be unfavorable in this region of limited agricultural importance.

 Figure 3.25. Kazakhstan crop condition,January-April 2018

                                    (a). Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                            (c)Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVIpatterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Northern region (left) Eastern plateau and southeastern region (right))

  (g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in South region(left) and Central non-agricultural region (right)

 Table 3.46. Kazakhstan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.47. Kazakhstanagroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's valuesand departure from 15YA, April – July 2018

 Table 3.48.CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Kazakhstan in 2018 (thousand tons)