During this monitoring period (April through July), maize in northwest Mexico was out of season while in other regions the crop was between sowing and growing time. Wheat was at the harvesting stage. Rice and soybean were at sowing period. Overall, crop condition was slightly below average but equal to the last year's level (Figure 3.30a).

All CropWatch agrolimatic indicators were slightly below average: rainfall -9%, temperature -0.4°C and RADPAR -2% indicating moderately unfavorable weather. The biomass production potential BIOMSS and CALF were 3% and 1% below average, respectively. The maximum VCI was 0.81, with low values occurring in Sonora, Chihuahua and Coahuila and more favorable ones in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan (Figure 3.30c). As shown by the spatial NDVI pattern and corresponding NDVI profiles, about 15.4% of cropped areas were continuously below average condition, mostly in Baja California,  Sinaloa, and Tamaulipas. In contrast, 15.1% of crops were continuously above average in Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz, Yucatan and Quintana Roo. This pattern is consistent with spatial VCIx variations. CropWatch estimates that the yield of maize will decrease by 0.5% compared with the previous season while wheat yield is up 0.6%.

Regional analysis

During April through July, crop condition in the Arid and semi-arid region was below average up to late June but got better to be above average from early July. Crop condition in the Humid tropics with summer rainfall was below average in early April but above average from late April to early May, and below average again since late June. Crop condition in the Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains was generally below average but equal to last year's level during April through July. 

The CropWatch agrolimatic indicators show that rainfall and RADPAR for all the four regions decreased compared to average with the departures between 4% and 14% (for rainfall), and 1% and 3% (for RADPAR). Temperature dropped slightly (around 0.5°C) in the the Humid tropics with summer rainfall, Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains while it was just average in the Arid and semi-arid regions. BIOMSS  were near average or average in Arid and semi-arid regions and Humid tropics with summer rainfall but below average in Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (-7%) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (-5%). CALF were average in Humid tropics with summer rainfall and Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains but below average in  Arid and semi-arid regions and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains, decreased by 5% and 1% respectively. Maximum VCI in Arid and semi-arid regions, Humid tropics with summer rainfall, Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains were between 0.73 and 0.87.

Figure 3.30. Mexico’s crop condition, April-July 2018

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                    (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (g))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (i) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains

Table 3.55. Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.56. Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018  

Table 3.57. CropWatch-estimated maize production for Mexico in 2018 (thousands tons)