Maize is distributed mainly in the Hills region of Muyanmar, while wheat and rice are planted across the country. The reporting period covers the harvest of maize in the Hills region (completed in early April), of wheat (completed early May) and the second rice crop (completed mid-June). The main rice crop started growing in early July. According to the CropWatch monitoring results, crop condition is considered to have been generally average from April to May, after which it dropped sharply starting in early June and remained far below average thereafter.

CropWatch agroclimatic indices show a marked increase in rainfall above average (RAIN +20%), but a drop in temperature (TEMP -0.8°C) and radiation (RADPAR, -5%). The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) underwent a slight decrease of 2%. Sufficient precipitation offset the influence of temperature and radiation, resulting a favorable behavior for biomass (+5%) compared to 5YA. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows an average situation in April and May but fell markedly below average in June and July. The abnormally low values since June over the whole country may be related to the poor condition of main rice and cloud cover over Myanmar during this period.

Regarding spatial variations, cropland across the country displayed unfavorable condition for almost the whole country during the monitoring period. All areas of Mandalay and Magwe and south of Sagaing remained average during April and May but deteriorated after June. Ayeyarwady,Yangon, Bago, Kayin and Mon displayed the lowest NDVI departures, a behavior similar to Mandalay, but reached very low values in mid-June. The spatial distribution of crop condition shows that the central plain experienced better climatic condition than the Hills and Coastal regions, which is consistent with the agroclimatic condition of sub-national regions. The maximum VCI map also displays this pattern: high values in central part of the central plain and low value in other regions. Country-wide,  the maximum VCI value was 0.83.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national, agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Myanmar:  the Coastal region, the Central plain, and the Hills.

Agroclimatic and crop conditions in the Coastal region follow the same pattern as the whole country, with crop condition was above average before June and deteriorating thereafter. The unfavorable crop condition of this sub-national region may reflect the situation of main rice. Rainfall was above average (RAIN 21%) while temperature and radiation dropped by 0.6°C and 6% respectively.

The Central plain is the main agricultural region of the country and includes most of Mandalay and Magwe, which both show satisfactory values for the CropWatch indicators, as mentioned above. More rainfall (RAIN, +22%) than the other two regions resulted in good crop growth, confirmed by a high VCIx value (0.84).

The Hills region is the major maize producing area of the country but also includes some rice. Agroclimatic indicators were close to the national values the and other two sub-national regions. As NDVI development graphs show, crop condition was mostly below average except for mid-April.

Overall for Myanmar, crop condition is generally below average due to the lower temperature and poor radiation. The NDVI values during April and May are average, meaning that there is no influence for the harvesting of maize, wheat and second rice, but the crop condition and production of main rice may have suffered adverse conditions in June and July. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) for the country and the three regions also shows a slight decrease compared to average, which may contribute to reduce crop production. CropWatch puts the production of maize and second rice during 2018 slightly below those of 2017.

Figure 3.21. Myanmar cropcondition, April - July 2018

                                                    (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI(Coastal region (left) and Central plain (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hill region)

Table 3.50. Myanmar agroclimaticindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, April - July 2018

Table 3.51. Myanmar agronomic indicatorsby sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from5YA, April - July 2018

Table 3.52. CropWatch-estimated maizeand rice production for Myanmar in 2018 (thousand tons)