Russia experienced locally unsatisfactory  climate conditions during this monitoring period although the national VCIx reached 0.90 on average.The winter wheat harvest began in July, while the planting of maize and spring wheat started in April and May. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction was just below the last five-year average (-1%). Nationwide weather was average with a 1% drop in RAIN and slightly cool TEMP 0.4°C below average. The BIOMSS indicator recorded a marginal drop of 1% below its five-year average.

As shown in the NDVI crop condition development graph for the country as a whole, the NDVI was lower than during 2017 and the average of the previous year from May to July. In the Caucasus and north Volga area the NDVI was initially close to the average but significantly decreased from May (10.2% or cropland). In the Central Economic Region (20.8% of arable land), the NDVI  was lower than average befo

re June but close to average thereafter. More details are provided in the  regional analysis. Due to poor winter climate condition wheat yield is expected to drop 6.8%, with a 10.3% drop on production below 2017 values, while summer crops, especially maize are doing relatively well so far (0.9% on yield).

Regional analysis

Additional spatial detail is provided below for seven regions, namely the Kaliningrad Oblast, Caucasus, Volga Basin, Central Economic Region, Southern Urals, South Siberia, and Northwest region including Novgorod.

In the Kaliningrad Oblast, Caucasus, Volga region, Central Economic Region and Northwest region including Novgorod biomass expectations are below to averge by -16%, -4%, -7%,-3% and -2% respectively  due to the precipitation deficits in the range from 9 to 17%. NDVI in these areas were lower than both last year and the average. Especially  in Kaliningrad Oblast, the precipitation deficit  was -17%, the Cropped arable land fraction was only 93% and VCIx was 0.78, which was the most affected area by climate condition in whole Russia. 

In the Southern Urals and South Siberia, the BIOMASS was above average  by 7% and 2% due to the satisfactory supply. The rainfall increased 13% in Southern Urals and the BIOMASS increase 7%. Unlike most of the rest of croplands in Russia, the NDVI in these two areas are close or above the previous year and average.

Figure.1 Russia phenology of major crops

                                                    (a).Phenology of major crops

Figure 2. Russia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum.

Figure 3. Russia maximum VCI for April-July 2018 by pixel

Figure 4. Russia spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

FIgure.5 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Kaliningrad oblast (right) The Caucasus  (left)

FIgure.7 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Volga Basin (right) Central Economic Region(left)

FIgure.9 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern (rigt) UralsSouthern Siberian area(left)

FIgure.11 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Northwest region including Novgorod

Table 1. Russia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table 2. Russia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2018

Table 3. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for Russia in 2018 (thousand tons)