The main rice crop was sown in Thailand during the current April to July monitoring period, while the harvest of the second rice crop was completed in June. According to the agroclimatic indices, temperature (TEMP, -1.2°C) and radiation (RADPAR, -5%) were below average for the country. Due to satisfactory rainfall (RAIN, +11%), the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) is up 4%. The NDVI development graph shows that crop condition was between average and the 5-year maximum condition before it deteriorated in July. According to the NDVI departure clustering map, 59.2% of cropland throughout the country was above average up to July, except in the southern region and Udon Thani, Nong Khai, Khon Kaen and Roi Et.  28.1% of cropland was consitently above average including Chumphon, Ranong, Surat Thani, Phangnga, Krabi, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang, Narathiwat, Phatthalung and Songkhla. Altogether, the crop output is anticipated to be above average.

Regional analysis

The regional analysis below focuses on some agro-ecological zones of Thailand, of which some are mostly defined by the rice cultivation typology. They include the Central double and triple-cropped rice lowlands (115), South-eastern horticulture area (116), Western and southern hill areas (117) and the Single-cropped rice north-eastern region (118). The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

According to agro-climatic indicators for the Central double and triple-cropped rice lowlands, temperature (TEMP -1.3ºC), radiation (RADPAR -4%) and accumulated rainfall (RAIN -4%) were below average, resulting in an average biomass production potential in Thailand (BIOMSS +1%).  According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition fluctuated around the 5-year maximum before July but deteriorated in July. Considering the favorable maximum VCIx value of 0.96, the situation is assessed as average.

The South-eastern horticulture area suffered cool weather with low sunshine during this monitoring period (TEMP down 1.3℃ compared with average and RADPAR at -9%, which is significant). RAIN, however was close to average (-4%) and so was the biomass production potential. NDVI development graphs show a fluctuation around the 5-year maximum before July, and a subsequent drop. Considering that Cropped arable land fraction(CALF)  increased 1% compared to 5-year average and the maximum VCIx value was around 0.95, the situation in South-eastern horticulture area was average or slightly above . 

Crop condition in the Western and southern hill areas was usually below average according to the Agroclimatic indicators: TEMP -1.1°C, RADPAR -7%, and BIOMSS -4% when compared to their respective averages. RAIN  was above average (+7%) but the positive effect was canceled out by low temperature and poor sunshine. The CALF was close to average compared to 5-year average, and the maximum VCIx was about 0.95. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was nevertheless close to 5-year average. 

Finally, the situation in the Single-cropped rice north-eastern region follow the same patterns as those for the country as a whole: temperature (TEMP -1.5ºC) and radiation (RADPAR -5%) were below average, and accumulated rainfall was significantly above (RAIN +26%), resulting in slight biomass production potential increase (BIOMSS +5%). According to an average CALF (+1% change) and favorable VCIx value of 0.92, the crop condition was close to average, which is confirmed by the NDVI profiles and development graph.

At the national level, most arable land was cropped during the season and had favorable VCIx values around 0.94. CropWatch projects that yield of maize and rice in Thailand in 2018 will increase by 9.2% and 7.7%, respectively.

Figure 3.28a. Thailand phenology of major crops

                                                              (a). Phenology of major crops

Figure 3.28b. Thailand national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.28c. Thailand maximum VCI forApril-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.28d. Thailand spatial NDVIpatterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.28f Central double and triple-cropped rice lowlands (Thailand) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

              .Western and southern hill areas(Thailand)crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.28h. South-eastern horticulture area(Thailand) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 72. CropWatch estimated rice,wheatand soybean production for 2018 (thousands tons)