Maize and rice were planted and growing, while wheat was growing and harvested during the monitoring period. In the whole country, rainfall and temperature were above average (RAIN +37%, TEMP +1.0℃), which led to an increase of biomass (BIOMSS +17%). The NDVI profiles indicate average crop condition in the whole country. The national average VCIx was 0.89. From the spatial NDVI patterns map, the NDVI was below average in Southeast Anatolia and  the Marmara sea region, which mainly covers four provinces (Edirne，Kerklerelli，Tekirda and Shangle Urfa). Above average NDVI occurred in Eastern Anatolia, Mush, Ararat and Erzurum indicating good crop condition.

CropWatch estimates the wheat production in 2018 to be 2.0% below 2017. The wheat yield decreased by 2.3%, while the area increased by 0.3%. For maize, CropWatch puts the yield and area 0.3% and 2.5% above the 2017 value, respectively. The maize production is, therefore, estimated to be 2.8% above 2017.

Regional analysis

The regional analysis includes four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland zone. 

In the Black Sea zone, crop condition was generally above or close to average. In this region, the temperature was above average (TEMP +1.5℃), and the radiation (RADPAR) increased by 2%. The cropped arable land fraction was 98%. The average value of VCIx was high at 0.91. The output of summer crops was favorable. 

During this reporting period, the crop condition was above or close average from April to May, and below average  from June to July in the Central Anatolian zone. The abundant rainfall （RAIN+55%）resulted in a significant increase of BIOMSS index (+26%).The average VCIx for this region was 0.87. The CALF increased by 12%. The output of winter crops in this region was favorable. 

In the Eastern Anatolia zone, crop condition was above average. The VCIx map showed that most of this region enjoyed higher VCIx than 1.0. The excellent crop condition is also confirmed by the spatial NDVI patterns map. The rainfall and temperature were both above average (RAIN +14%, TEMP  +1.0℃). The favorable climate condition resulted increases of biomass and cropped arable land fraction (BIOMSS, +2%; CALF, +9%). The output of summer crops is expected to be favorable.

As indicated by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland zone, the crop condition was below average during the monitoring period. The temperature was close to average (TEMP +0.7℃), while the radiation was below average (RADPAR -3%). In this whole region, the VCIx was 0.86. The output of winter crops in this region is just fair.

Figure 3.29. Turkey crop condition, April 2018-July 2018

                                                     (a)Phenology of major crops

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(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right)) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.74. Turkey agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018.

Table 3.75. Turkey agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departurefrom 5YA, April-July 2018.

Table 3.76 CropWatch estimated wheat production for Tuekey in 2018 (thousands tons)