During this monitoring period, maize and other summer crops were planted in May, while winter wheat, another main crop in Ukraine, was harvested in July. 

At the national level, precipitation was close to average (RAIN 246 mm, -0.3% compared with average), but temperature and radiation exceeded average significantly (TEMP, 18.2℃, +1.1℃; RADPAR, 1240 MJ/m², +6%). Nearly all cropland was cultivated (CALF, 99%) and the maximum vegetation condition index reached 0.87. Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators provide a mostly optimistic assessment of crop growth, even if the potential biomass (BIOMSS, 946 DM/m²) is down 6% below the average of the last five years. 

Based on national NDVI curves, the crop condition was persistently below the 5-year  average, especially from May to July, which suggests some growth restrictions. According to spatial NDVI patterns, NDVI was relatively below the 5-year average level everywhere. In 21% area (concentrated in southern areas), NDVI dropped dramatically in June and July, in this area, maximum VCI just reached 50-80% while other area usually reached above 80%. The mentioned area for Kherson to Luhansk (Oblasts) is a minor summer-crop production area except for sunflower.

CropWatch provisionally predicts 2018 maize production to decrease by 8.8% below 2017. Wheat (essentially winter grown) is put at -7.1%.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, reports covering four agroecological zones are provided: Central wheat area (118), Northern wheat area (119), Eastern  Carpathian hills (120), and Southern wheat and maize area (121).

The Central wheat area (Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts) showed mostly normal spring and early summer weather (RAIN 232 mm, +3%; TEMP 18.3℃, +0.9℃; RADPAR 1252 gDM/m², +6%) and favourable agronomic conditions (CALF 99%; VCIx 0.91). The resulting biomass was normal (-2%). Attention should pay to the NDVI development profile, the NDVI was always below the average level, possibly due to increased water consumption linked to warm and sunnier than average weather.

The Northern wheat area (Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kiev oblasts) also experienced a basically average agroclimatic and agronomic situation, akin to that in the Central wheat area. Rainfall, temperature and sunshine was marginally higher than average, by 7%, 1.2℃ and 4%，respectively. Region had good CALF (0.94) as well as VCI (0.96), which ensured BIOMSS was closed to 5-year average.  Average summer crops can be expected.

The Eastern Carpathian hills (Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts) received 2% higher than average rainfall, 3% higher radiation and 1.3℃ higher temperature; stable agroclimatic conditions led BIOMSS stay at 5-year average level (-2%). Agronomic indicators showed a very good CALF (100%) and VCIx (0.97), the NDVI in this area recovered to 5-year average since July. all of these indicated the condition for crop was improving at the time of reporting. 

The Southern wheat and maize area (Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts) was 16% deficient in rainfall, while the higher temperature (+1.0℃) and radiation (+8%) aggravated the water shortage. Such  condition was unfavourable for crop growth, confirmed by NDVI profiles significantlybelow the  5-year average since May and a rather poor VCIx (0.77). This area will need close monitoring during the next reporting period but average crops are unlikely

Figure 3.30. Ukraine crop condition, April - July 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Cebntral wheat area (left) and Northern wheat area (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills (left) and Southern wheat and maize area (right))

Table 3.55. Ukraine agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departure from 15YA, April - July 2018

Table 3.56. Ukraine agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departure from 5YA, April - July 2018

Table Ukraine CropWatch-estimated wheat production for 2018 (thousand tons)