This current reporting period includes the sowing and early growth of maize, soybean and rice, the full cycle of spring wheat, and the final growth stages and harvest of winter wheat.

NDVI profiles indicated the crop condition was slightly above the average at the end of July. The agro-climatic indicators were normal and RAIN was 396 mm (+1% compared to average), TEMP was 19.0 ℃ (-0.2℃), RADPAR was 1301 MJ/㎡ (-2%), and caused an increase of 2% in BIOMSS. Some Sates in the Southern Plains, Corn Belt and Lower Mississippi River suffered from a rainfall deficit, including Texas (-22% compared to average), Washington (-23%), and California(-7%), Indiana (-18%) , Michigan (-33%), Missouri(-20%), Ohio(-10%) and Illinois (-7%) and Arkansas (-14%). The Northern Plains and western part of the Corn Belt received abundant rainfall, including North Dakota (up 53% above average), South Dakota (49%), Nebraska (47%) and Minnesota (33%). Almost all states experienced normal temperature in the range of -0.6℃ to 0.6℃ compared to average. 

The precipitation distribution caused directly resulted in crop condition patterns. Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles indicates the good performance expected for the Southern Plains. Favorable crop condition was recorded in the Northern Plain (North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana) due to abundant rainfall over the monitoring period. Poor crop condition was already reported for the previous (JFMA) reporting period in the Southern Plains (Texas and Oklahoma) due to  rainfall deficit. Slightly below average crop condition occurred in some parts of the Northern Corn Belt resulting from drought, for instance in Michigan. Favorable crop condition in the Northern Plains and the southern  Corn Belt (Illinois and Indiana) was also confirmed by the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) above 1. The regions with low VCIx (<0.5) were concentrated in the Southern Plains. As the major rice production region, good crop condition was recorded in Arkansas in spite of below average rainfall.

Considering the above analysis, CropWatch estimates that the production of maize and rice improved over 2017 output by 0.3% and 15.7%, while wheat and soybean decreased 3.9% and 0.8%, respectively. 

In this reporting period, crop condition for Northern Plains,Southern Plains, Corn Belt, Lower Mississippi, California, Southeast were described as following: 

Regional analysis

The Northern Plains are an important spring crops zone. In general, above crop condition was reported due to abundant precipitation (RAIN was 51% above the average), TEMP was just 0.3℃ below. As a result, BIOMSS was significantly above the average (+28%). The planting was favored by abundant precipitation and  CALF rose 9% over the average of the last 5 years. The good crop condition is confirmed by the VCIx value of 0.94.

The Southern Plains constitute the most important winter wheat area of the United State. In general, below average crop condition was reported in this region due to water deficit. RAIN was 7% below the average, TEMP was average and the potential Biomass dropped 1%. Drought caused the decrease of cropped land in this region and CALF fell 6% below the average of the last 5 years. The VCIx was 0.76 and the northern part of Texas even lower than 0.5, confirming below average crop condition.

The Lower Mississippi is the major rice production zone. In general, above crop condition was recorded by CropWatch, even if agro-climatic conditions were only fair: RAIN -7%, TEMP -0.5℃ and RADPAR -1%. Irrigation compensated the RAIN deficit and rice performed well (VCIx 0.94). 

Crop condition was mixed in the Corn Belt, the most important maize and soybean zone of United States. Agro-climatic conditions was normal, with RAIN (0%), TEMP(-0.4℃), and RADPAR (1%) and caused a small drop in potential biomass (-1%). As described above, Michigan, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio suffered drought, with RAIN below average by 33%, 20%, 18% and 10%, respectively. Below average crop condition in Michigan, some parts of Indiana and Ohio is confirmed by the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles. The West and the core region (Illinois and Iowa) of Corn Belt, however, recorded high values of VCIx (above 0.9). This region deserves close monitoring. 

Crop condition was generally below average In the Northwest, an important winter crops producing region in the United States. Agro-climatic variables were close to average: RAIN -3%, TEMP +0.4℃ and RADPAR -4% but Washington State suffered serious drought (rain was short by 23%). The below average crop condition was confirmed by spatial the distribution of NDVI profiles, negative from April to July. Agronomic indicator, however, are more favourable with CALF at 0.85 (+4%) and VCIx at 0.88.

Figure 3.43. United States’scrop condition, April -July 2018

                                                 (a).Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                          (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                             (e) NDVI profile

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Northern Plains(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern Plains

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Lower Mississippi(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Corn Belt                                                                    

(j)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Northwest region 

Table 3.110. United States’s agronomicindicators  and agronomic by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from5YA, April -July 2018

No.	name	RAIN(mm)	Departure(%)	TEMP (°C)	Departure(℃)	RADPAR(MJ/m2)	Departure(%)
1	California	82	-5	16.8	0.3	1566	-2
2	Corn Belt	449	0	17.1	-0.4	1275	-1
3	Lower Mississippi	474	-7	23.7	-0.5	1300	-1
4	Middle Atlantic	426	-3	17.7	-0.4	1145	-7
5	Northern Plains	403	51	14.2	-0.3	1332	-4
6	Northeast	269	-33	14.5	-0.2	1182	0
7	Northwest	149	-3	13.3	0.4	1364	-4
8	Southern Plains	380	-7	22.8	-0.1	1376	0
9	Southeast	543	5	23.0	-0.6	1228	-5

Table.X. Summary of agronomic indicators for major regions of United States
No.	name	BIOMSS (gDMd/m2) 	Departure(%)	CALF	Departure(%)	VCI
1	California	279	-10	0.76	12	0.82
2	Corn Belt	1374	-1	1.00	0	0.97
3	Lower Mississippi	1551	3	1.00	0	0.94
4	Middle Atlantic	1452	-3	1.00	0	0.93
5	Northern Plains	1302	28	0.92	9	0.94
6	Northeast	1069	-22	1.00	0	0.96
7	Northwest	649	2	0.85	4	0.89
8	Southern Plains	1184	-1	0.80	-6	0.76
9	Southeast	1614	2	1.00	0	0.94

Table.X. Summary of production variation in 2018 of United States
Production variation	maize	rice	wheat	soybean
United States	0.3%	15.7%	-3.9%	-0.8%