UZBEKISTAN

The monitoring period covers the growing and harvesting of wheat and the planting and early growth of maize. Crop condition was generally unfavorable. The national average VCIx was 0.67, and the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 20%. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, TEMP and RADPAR were slightly below average (-0.5°C and -2%), while RAIN increased by 5%. The combination of factors resulted in increased BIOMSS (2%) compared to the recent five-year average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average from April to July. NDVI cluster graphs and profiles showed that most areas across Uzbekistan experienced the unfavorable crop condition during the monitoring period. About 18.9% of the crop land had above average condition from April to May, covering most of the four wheat provinces (Namangan, Andijon, Quqon andFarghona)  and some small parts of Angren, Nawoiy, Qarshi, Urganch, Samarqand, Bukhoro and Guliston provinces.  Overall, CropWatch expects a decrease of 4.7% in wheat production and 5.5% in wheat yield compared with last year, while the wheat area increased by 0.9%.

Regional analysis

According to cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Uzbekistan is divided into three agro-ecological zones of which the two first are covered below: the Aral sea cotton zone, Eastern hilly cereals zone and Central region with sparse crops. The following are crop condition analyses for main cropped regions.

In the rainfed Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI was generally below the five-year average from April to July. RAIN was above average (+3%) and RADPAR and TEMP were below average (-2% and -0.5°C). The combination of the factors resulted in a slight BIOMSS increase (+3%) compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.66, while the cropped area decreased by 23% compared to the five-year average. Overall crop prospects are poor.

In the irrigated Aral Sea cotton zone, crop condition was close to 5YA only in May and below in the other months. Accumulated rainfall was above average during the monitoring period (RAIN 30%), radiation and temperature were below average (RADPAR -1% and TEMP -0.8°C). The BIOMSS index increased by 27% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.72, while the cropped arable land decreased by 12%. Overall crop prospects are unfavorable. 

Figure 3.44. Uzbekistan’s crop condition, April-July 2018

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                (c) Maximum VCI

    (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (left)                               NDVI profiles (right)

(e) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Aral Sea cotton region (left) and Eastern hilly cereals zone (right)

Table 3.95. Uzbekistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from15YA, April-July 2018

 Table 3.96. Uzbekistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.97. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Uzbekistan in 2018 (thousand tons)