The monitoring period covers the sowing of the 10th month rice, as well as the harvesting of winter and spring rice. Generally, compared with the average of the past five years and the average of the same period last year, the crop condition in Vietnam was significantly lower, except in April. The initial NDVI value was close to average but was affected by wide fluctuations after May.  The NDVI values in the north of Vietnam show a rapid decline which may result from cloudy weather.  CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that precipitation (+11%), BIOMSS (+1%) and VCIx (0.91) were above their respective reference averages (15YA and 5YA) while temperature (-0.8°C) and CALF (-0.5) were all below average. RADPAR was also below average (-6%). Overall crop condition in the country is unsatisfactory. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions can be distinguished for Vietnam: Northern Vietnam,  Central Vietnam and Southern Vietnam. 

In Northern Vietnam the situation of RADPAR (-6%) and TEMP (+0.8°C departure) is almost identical with the one in the South of the country, but the abundant RAIN (15%), high CALF (0.99) and VCIx (0.94) compared to the average (5YA) resulted in increased BIOMSS (7%).  The crop condition development graph of NDVI indicates exceeds the 5 years average from April to May. According to agroclimatic indicators, above average output is expected.

The situation and expected impact on crop production in Central Vietnam is very similar with the preceding zone with the exception of more abundant rainfall and lower temperature and RADPAR: RAIN +34%; TEMP -0.8°C; RADPAR -9%; BIOMSS +6%. VCIx reaches 0.91 and CALF is average. The graph of NDVI indicates that crop condition reaching the average of 5 years in April and May. Based on agroclimatic indicators, average output is expected.

Southern Vietnam, recorded low RADPAR (-5%), RAIN (-5%) and TEMP (-0.8°C compared with the reference value). As a result BIOMSS fell by 8% compared with the averages (5YA). VCIx was low (0.89) with CALF down 1% below average. The crop condition development graph of NDVI also indicates mostly below average crop condition. CropWatch expects below average production. 

Figure 3.33. Vietnam crop condition, April-July 2018

                                   Figure3.33a. Vietnam phenology of major crops 

Figure3.33b. Vietnam national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the April-July 2018 period to the previous season and the five-yearaverage (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.33d. Vietnam spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2018 according to localcropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles(right)

Figure3.33e.crop condition development graph based on NDVI Northern Vietnam (Vietnam) (right)Central Vietnam (Vietnam)(left)

Figure3.33g. Southern Vietnam (Vietnam) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.87  Vietnam agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, currentseason values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table3.88  Vietnam agronomic indicators by sub-national regions , currentseason values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018

Table3.89  CropWatch-estimated rice production for Vietnam in 2018 (thousandstons)