During the monitoring period south-African summer crops (maize, rice, and soybean) were at the end of their growing period or had already been harvested. Wheat, however, was just at planting in Mediterranean climate areas and as an irrigated dry-season crop in the north-west.  Average rainfall (RAIN) was 69 mm, 19% below the 15YA. At 14.0 °C TEMP was virtually average while RADPAR was just below (-1%). The biomass production potential was  below the average (298 gDM/m2 or -15%). 

The nationwide crop condition, based on NDVI graph,  was above the maximum five years conditions indicating favourable weather after the recent El Niño conditions. The map of spatial NDVI patterns shows that only 4% of the total cropped area, especially located in western Cape province, was significantly below the average. A slight deficit of 0.02 NDVI units also occurs in 19.3% or cropland, MOSTLY around Western Cape and in the Northern Province.The pattern is confirmed in the maximum VCI map by values below 0.8. For the country as a whole VCIx reached  0.9; CALF was 0.9， 20% above the 5 years average.

CropWatch currently puts 2018 maize production 2.4% below last year's. For the wheat season, which is just starting, the production is tentatively put 1.9% below the 2017 output.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agro-ecological zones (AEZs) relevant for crop production in South-Africa: Humid Cape Fold mountains, the Mediterranean zone and the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas. 

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the average rainfall (RAIN) was 28% below the average, leading to a 22% reduction in estimated BIOMSS compared to the average. No significant departure was recorded for temperature (TEMP) or RADPAR (-2%). The  NDVI-based crop conditions graph shows that the conditions were above the maximum 5 years conditions and the VCI value for the whole zone was high (0.9). 

The  Mediterranean zone recorded just 93mm of RAIN, 45% below the average. TEMP was 13.7 °C, 0.6 °C  above the average. No significant change occurred for RADPAR (2% below the average), while the estimated BIOMSS dropped 33%. NDVI profiles showed below average conditions from April to mid-May but then rapidly rose above average until the end of the reporting period. The  maximum VCI was 0.5 and CALF was 0.9, 3% above the average. 

In Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas,  the rainfall (RAIN) and the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) were both was about 10% below average. The CALF reached 1 (100%), 28% above the average. The VCI was 1, indicating excellent crop conditions confirmed by the NDVI-based crop conditions graph showing crop condition exceeding the recent 5-year maximum.

                                                                   (a) Phenology of major crops 

    (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                         (c) Maximum VCI 

           (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                (e) NDVI profile 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Humid Cape Fold Mountains (left) and Mediterranean zone (right))

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  for Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize zone.

Table 3.101. South Africa’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  April-July, 2018.

Table 3.102. South Africa’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July, 2018.

Table 3.103. CropWatch-estimated maize and Wheat production for South Africa in 2018 (thousand tons)