Wheat, barley, maize, and rice are the major cereals grown in semi-arid Afghanistan. The bulk of winter wheat is cultivated in the northern border provinces and was harvested in May. Spring wheat was planted from March to April. Maize and rice were planted in June and July, respectively.

On average, the country received 30% below average rainfall; compared to average, TEMP dropped -0.5°C and RADPAR -3%. The biomass production potential fell 32% while CALF reached 50 % below 5YA and VCIx did not exceed 0.4. As a result, CropWatch foresees a wheat production drop of 22% relative to 2017.

Nationwide crop condition based on NDVI graphs was low compared to the last 5 years average as well as to 2017. Four provinces recorded low NDVI in April; Badghis, Faryab, Jawzian, and samangan. The same and Hirat, Saripul, Balkh, and Kunduz recorded VCIx value below than 0.5. Remaing provinces, however, had VCIx values between 0.8 and 1.

Regional analysis

Afghanistan is divided into four AEZs: Central, Dry, Dry with irrigated cultivation, and Dry and grazing regions.

The Central region received low rainfall (50mm, -39% below average) and TEMP was 17.0°C (-0.4°C). RADPAR reached 1576 MJ/m2 (-3%). The reduction of rainfall resulted in 33% lower than 5YA BIOMSS accumulation potential. Low NDVI, CALF down -8 % and VCIx at 0.6 indicate unsatisfactory crop condition and output.

The Dry region received low rain (24mm, 56% below average) and TEMP was 0.4°C below average, while RADPAR was down 2.3 %. A drop in CALF (-22 %) associated with rather low VCIx (0.3) and a 51% BIOMSS loss compared with the 5YA) all indicate low production.

The Dry and irrigated cultivation region received the largest precipitation amount (96 mm) but it is still below the average by 19 %. TEMP was slightly cooler than average (-0.6°C) and RADPAR was 2 % below average. The BIOMSS reached 330 gDM/m2 (the highest regional value in the country) and it was 24 % under the 5YA. The CALF was -44% and VCIx scored 0.5.

The Dry and grazing region recorded 20 mm with reduction of 40% from the average, with below average TEMP at 20.0°C (-0.8°C) and a below average RADPAR of 154 was lower than the average by -31% and CALF reached -89% lower than the average, while crop condition was poor at 0.4 VCIx.

 Figure 3…. Afghanistan’s crop condition, April- July 2018.

                                                       (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI           (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                           (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_VegRegion (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_IrrigatedRegion (left) and Dry (right))

Table 3…. Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018.

Table 3…. Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from5YA, April-July 2018. 

Table 3…. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Afghanistan in 2018 (thousand tons).