Wheat, triticale and barley are three major cereal crops in Belarus, while during the current monitoring period Bielarussian farmers harvested winter wheat in July and planted spring wheat and other summer crops such as barley from April. 

Agroclimatic conditions were satisfactory (RAIN 287 mm, +5%; TEMP 16.4℃, +1.4℃; RADPAR 1129 MJ/m², +4%). Agronomic indicators also showed a very good maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx, 0.93) and crop arable land fraction (CALF, 99%). At national level, the crop condition development graph was close to or above the 5YA average from middle April to middle May. After a temporary drop in June (in 18% of cropped areas), NDVI gradually recovered to normal levels. The drop is most likely due to premature harvest due to abnormally high temperature. According to the spatial distribution maps, VCIx was satisfactory in most areas of the country (above 0.8). Globally, BIOMSS is expected to decrease by 4%, while the winter wheat production will remain stable. 

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for for three agroecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Northern Belarus (159) with the Regions of Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev; Central Belarus (158) with the southern part of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev, the north of Brest and Gomel and Southern Belarus (160) with the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

All three AEZs were exposed to abnormally high temperature with anomalies between 1.3℃ and 1.6℃, which is likely to have shifted phenology ahead by about one month, as shown in the NDVI-based crop development graphs, and caused water stress in summer crops.

Northern Belarus recorded  average rainfall, 1.3℃ higher temperature, 4% higher radiation but satisfactory agronomic indicators: 99% of CALF and 0.94 for VCIx. However, NDVI profiles in this area dropped below 5 YA average since June, which agrees with projected biomass 5% lower than the 5 YA average level.

Central Belarus recorded above average rainfall (RAIN +8%), temperature (TEMP +1.6℃) and radiation (RADPAR +4%) with VCIx at 0.92 and high CALF (99%) indicating that nearly all arable land is cultivated. However, continuous near or below average NDVI until June restricted potential biomass (BIOMSS -3%).

The situation in Southern Belarus different little from the other area: 10% excess rainfall, +1.4℃ temperature anomaly and abundant  radiation  (+3%). CALF reached 100% and high VCIx (0.95) confirmed a good condition for crop growth. However, potential biomass seemed not benefit from above conditions (BIOMSS -2%).

Figure 3.XX. Belarus crop condition, April - July 2018

                                                               (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI (Northern Belarus (left), Central Belarus (middle) and Southern Belarus (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern Belarus

Table 3.XX. Belarus agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departure from 15YA, April - July 2018

Table 3.XX. Belarus agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departure from 5YA, April - July 2018

Table Belarus CropWatch-estimated wheat production for 2018 (thousand tons)