The monitoring period covers spring wheat and other cereals currently in the field; they were sowed before June. During the reporting period, the crop condition in the country was favorable. The national average VCIx was 0.90 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 2% compared to the five-year average. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN was above average (+40%), TEMP was about average (+0.5°C departure), while RADPAR was below 5%. The combination of factors resulted in high BIOMSS (+18%) compared to average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was generally close to average from April to June and above average in July. NDVI cluster graphs and profiles show that 42.7% of arable lands were consistently above average since June, mostly in Khentii, Bulgan, Selenge and east Hovsgol provinces; 16% were consistently below average, mainly in Tov and patches in Arkhangai and south Bulgan, and south-west Hovsgol provinces. Variable NDVI with low values around May (23,5%) occurred in east Dornod, Uvs, Bulgan and patches in Hovsgol and Khentii provinces. CropWatch expects an increase of 11.6% in wheat production compared with last year, while the production area of wheat is estimated to increase by 1.3%. Overall, the agroclimatic variables indicate favorable conditions for crops.

Regional analysis

In the Khangai Khuvsgul region, NDVI was slightly below the five-year average from late April to late June and about average in July. The RAIN and TEMP were above average (+32% and +0.5°C) and RADPAR was below average (-2%). The combination of the factors resulted in high BIOMSS (+12%) compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.89, while the cropped area decreased by 1% compared to the five-year average. Overall crop prospects are favorable.

The Selenge-Onon region, Crop condition was above the five years average from  May to July. Accumulated rainfall was above average during the monitoring period (RAIN 43%), BIOMSS and TEMP were above average (21% and 0.5°C). The RADPAR index decreased by 6% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.91, while the cropped arable land increased by 4%. Overall crop prospects are favorable. 

The Central and Eastern Steppe Region, According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this region was below average from April to June and close to average from late June to July. RAIN and TEMP were above average (+53% and +0.8°C, respectively), while RADPAR was below average (-6%). BIOMSS was up 38%, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 5% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.87. In general, the region experienced favorable weather conditions for crop growth during the current season.

Remaining regions (Altai and Gobi) play a minor role in crop production. Conditions were nevertheless favourable to rangeland development.

Figure 3.32. Mongolia’s crop condition, April-July 2018

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA             (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Hangai Khuvsgul Region (left) (g) Selenge-Onon Region (right))

Table 3.61. Mongolia agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from15YA, July - October 2018

Table 3.62. Mongolia agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.63. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Mongolia in 2018 (thousand tons)