During the monitoring period (April-July, 2018), the maize was being harvested and wheat has been sown. For the same period, the agro-climatic indicators estimated by CropWatch indicated that the average rainfall (RAIN) was 23% above the average, while the average temperature(TEMP) was 0.4°C below the average. The RADPAR was only 3% below the average, but the BIOMSS was 17% above the average.

According to NDVI graphs crop condition was slightly above; it was below average only in 11% of the cropped area.  Both the maximum VCI and the spatial NDVI patterns map showed that the conditions were slightly better in the south than the middle and the north of the couintry. The VCI for the whole country was 0.9, while the CALF was 1.

All of the CropWatch indicators agree in assessing crop conditions as fairly good during this period and no significant variation in crop production is expected (-1% maize production variation compared to last season).

Regional analysis

Zambia can be divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) : Northern high rainfall zone, Western semi-arid plain, Central (Eastern and Southern Plateau) zone, and Luangwa Zambezi rift valley.

In the Northern high rainfall zone, the average rainfall (RAIN) was 39% above the average, while the temperature (TEMP) was 0.6°C below. RADPAR was low as well (-3%) and BIOMSS was 28% up. 

In the Western semi-arid plain, RAIN and TEMP were both above average (+36% and 0.8°C, respectively). RADPAR was low (-4%) and BIOMSS followed RAIN (+33%).

In the Central zone, and the Luangwa-Zambezi rift valley, RAIN was closer to average than in the two previous AEZs at +5% and +9%, respectively.  The  temperature (TEMP) was 0.7°C below the average in the Central zone. The RADPAR was only 3% below the average, and the BIOMSS was 9% above the average for both zones.

The NDVI-based crop condition graphs for the agro-ecological zones show that the crops were slightly below average until mid-May, after which they returned to average, except for the Luangwa Zambezi rift valley zone where crops conditions were slightly above the average during the whole reporting period. Maximum VCI was between 0.8 to 0.9 for all zones.

                                                                                     (a) Phenology of major crops

              (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                          (c) Maximum VCI 

                  (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                 (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI ( Northern high rainfall zone (left) and Western semi-arid plain (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI ( Central (Eastern and Southern Plateau) zone (left) and Luanguwa Zambazi rift valley (right)) 

Table 3.104. Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018.

Table 3.105. Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018.

Table 3.106. CropWatch-estimated maize production for Zambia in 2018 (thousands tons) .