Considered to be the wet season in Mozambique, the April-July the monitoring period covers the final stage of growing season of Maize and Rice as well as harvesting season in the North region, while in the central area, Rice and Maize were harvesting in early April. The growing and harvesting stage characterised the wheat during this period. The agroclimatic indicators for Mozambique show an increase in rainfall(RAIN=+61%) and a decrease in both temperature and radiation (TEMP = -0.6ºC and RADPAR=-2.1%). The behaviours verified on agroclimatic indicators led to favourable condition on all agronomic indicators, where the biomass rose by 31%over the past five years average. The recorded cropped arable land fraction(CALF) was at average level and maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.91. An increase in Maize production of about 2.2% is expected.

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for the entire country, indicate crop conditions above the average of past five years during almost the whole monitoring period, but below the values of the of the same monitoring period of 2017 as well as five years maximum. At the same time, the maximum VCIx map shows that poor crop conditions were observed in south part of Gaza Province with VCIx values below 0.5, while the coastal areas of Inhambane and Nampula and part of the central region of Zambezia Province registered better crop conditions with values of VCIx higher than 1. NDVI departure was above the average throughout the reporting period in most parts of the country representing 51.1% of the cropped area.

With few exceptions, crop conditions can be deemed favourable in Mozeambique.

Regional Analysis

Taking consideration of the climate, vegetation, altitude, soil and farming systems, Mozambique is divided into ten (10) agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza,Coastal areas and South of Save, North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane,Central medium altitude areas, Low altitude areas of Sofala and Zambezia, Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete, North Coastal areas, High altitude areas,Mid-altitude areas and Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado.

Inland of Maputo and southern Gaza region RAIN was 17% below average but TEMP and RADPAR were about average. BIOMSS rose 4% and cropped arable land fraction was up 3.3%. The maximum VCIx for this region was 0.90. Crop condition for this region was above the past five years' average.

Crop conditions above the average of past five years were recorded in Coastal areas and South of Save. Rain and temperature decreased by 26% and 0.3ºC respectively below average. BIOMSS registered a decrease of 5% while the cropped arable land fraction remained stable and VCIx of about 0.90 was observed.

RAIN in the North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane region marginally increased by 5% while the temperature and radiation were average.  Although BIOMASS increased by 22%, VCIx (0.77) was just average and CALF was reduced by 6.4%. All these elements combined, surprisingly resulted in crop conditions above the average of past five years, above the same monitoring period of 2017 as well but below the five years maximum.

With crop condition above the average of the past 5YA during almost all the monitoring period, the Central medium altitude areas registered a maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) of 0.95. In this region the rainfall increased by 22%, the temperature dropped by 1.0ºC, and the radiation decreased by 2%. These elements led to a slight increase in Biomass while the CALF was about average.

In the Low altitude areas of Sofala and Zambezia, the agroclimatic indicators show an increase in rainfall (+47%) and a slight drop in temperature and sunshine (TEMP -0.6, RADPAR-2%). CALF was stable and  BIOMSS increased by 23%. The maximum VCIx for this region was 0.92 and crop conditions were above the average of past 5YA.

About average crop conditions were observed in the Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete. This region verified an increase in rainfall (+24%), a reduction in temperature (-0.8ºC) and a decrease in radiation (-3%). CALF increased by 0.9%, BIOMSS was average and regional VCIx 0.90.

The Northen coastal areas was characterised mainly by a large increase in rainfall (RAIN+70%) and BIOMSS (+43%.) Other variables, including crop condition, were favourable as well.

Better crop conditions were also verified in High-altitude and mid-altitude areas where the rainfall more than doubled compared with average. Excellent agronomic indicators (VCIx 0.91 and 0.93, respectively and CALF unchanged) confirm goo crop prospects.

In the Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado, below average crop condition were observed from the beginning of the monitoring period up to mid-June; Rain was average but temperature was unusually cool (1.1ºC below average). CALF was about average, BIOMSS dropped 7% and VCIx nevertheless reached 0.92.

 Figure 3.33. Mozambique’s crop condition, January 2018-April 2018

                                      (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                           (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) Inland of Maputo and southern Gaza region (right) Coastal areas and South of Save.

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (left) North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane (right) Central medium altitude areas.  

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (left) Low altitude areas of Sofala and Zambezia (right) Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete.  

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (left) Northern coastal areas (right) High-altitude areas.  

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (left) Mid-altitude areas (right) Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado.  

Table 3.62.  Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departurefrom15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.63. Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from5YA, April-July 2018 

Table 3.64. CropWatch-estimated Maize production for Mozambique in 2018 (thousand tons)