[KEN] Kenya

The country has a "short rains" and a "long rains" season. The long rain crops (mostly maize and wheat) are to planted from March to April (late sowing windows) to be harvested in October and November. For the short rains, crops are planted in December and harvested in February and March. 

The current analysis covers early stages of long rain crops. RAINS increased 48% above average and BIOMSS is up 20% over the 5YA. Temperature and RADPAR dropped significantly by 1.2℃ and by 5 %, respectively.

Based on NDVI curves, crop condition was better than during 2017 and the five-year average in 88.9% of cropland. This pattern is reflected by the maximum VCIx in the different areas, with the maximum value of VCIx at 1.03, indicating exceptionally good crops. The production of maize is estimated to increase by 16.1 % during the 2018 production year.  

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions we divided this country into three Agroecological regions: the Eastern Coastal Area, the Northern region with sparse vegetation and Southwest Kenya.

The northern region with sparse vegetation is a mostly pastoral region; it recorded low rainfall compared to the other two regions: 377mm fell on average over Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot and Baringo, a 93 % increase over average. BIOMASS surged by 47%. Temperature and radiation were both below average (TEMP -1.1℃, RADPAR  -3%). The NDVI-based Crop condition development shows that the NDVI profile was above the five years average with the maximum VCI value at 0.92. Moreover, large parts of the arable land in this region have high VCIx values (0.92 for the region), indicating good crop condition. Overall the outlook in the region indicates that there was a favorable condition for rangeland production in the Northern region with sparse vegetation.

The Eastern Coastal Area include Mandera, Wajir and Isiolo. The counties are areas of low production compared to the southwest of Kenya. Rainfall and BIOMSS in the Eastern coastal areas rose 67% and 49%, respectively, compared to average. RADPAR dropped 3% and TEMP was 0.8℃ average. NDVI profiles were above their five-year average throughout the reporting period and maximum VCIx was 0.99, indicating very favorable crop condition. Production is expected to exceed 2017 values. 

The counties of Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru and Embu make up the Southwest Kenyan AEZ. They include many high elevation areas and constitute major producers of wheat and maize. The AEZ recorded 532 mm of RAIN, 44% above average. However, due to low sunshine (RADPAR -6%) and cool temperature (TEMP, -1.3℃), BIOMSS is up only 15%. NDVI profiles above their reference values and VCIx at 1.03agree in depicting crop prospects as was very favorable.  

                                        Figure 3.26. Kenya's crop condition, April 2018 - July 2018

                                                               (a). Phenology of major crops

      (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                (c) Maximum VCI

           (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (e) NDVI profiles

      (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI ( Southwest of   kenya, and  (g) Northern region with sparse vegetation

   (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Eastern Coastal area

Table 3.47. Kenya, Agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's valuesand departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.48. Kenya, Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.49. CropWatch-estimated maize production for Kenya in 2018(thousand tons) Crops Production 2017 Yield variation Area variation Production 2018 Production variation Maize