Country analysis

During the current monitoring period (April-July 2018), the country was harvesting Maize and Rice from April to May while Wheat was at sowing and early growth. The agroclimatic indicators for this period show an increase in rainfall and temperature (RAIN, +20.2% and TEMP, +1.7ºC) and a decrease of about 3.1% in RAPDAR. Contrary to the agroclimatic indicator, an increase was observed in all agro-ecological indicators (BIOMASS, +6.2% and CALF, +4.1%).

The crop condition was generally below reference values at the start of April but above from the end of April to July. During this period, Angola registered favourable maximum vegetation cover index (VCIx) all over the country with values variating between 0.8 to 1.0 and above. The maximum VCIx recorded was 0.91.  Based on the NDVI clusters, favourable corp condition representing 36% of arable land where observed in Southwest of the country, especially in the provinces of Huila and Cunene. Unfavourable crop condition prevailed in the Province of Zaire, covering one area of about 4.7%. The 2018 maize area is expected to increase 4.1% over 2017.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climatic zones and, and topographic conditions, Angola is divided into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Sub-humid zone, Humid zone, Arid zone, Semi-arid zone and Desert zone. 

In the Sub-humid zone, the agronomic indicators show an increase in rainfall and temperature (RAIN, +11% and TEMP, +1.8ºC) while the radiation fell 4%. Both biomass and cropped arable land fraction increased by 21% and 0.2% respectively. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that the region registered unfavourable crop condition from April to May; it improved between May and the end of July. 

Similar to the Sub-humid zone, favourable crop condition was observed from mid-May to July in the Humid zone. Rainfall and radiation dropped by 11% and 4% respectively when compared to average, while the temperature increased 1.0ºC. With CALF was close to the average of past five years departure. The maximum VCI for this region was 0.88.

Increases in both rainfall and temperature (RAIN, +25% and TEMP, +0.5ºC) were recorded in the Arid zone, which was accompanied by a reduction in the sunshine by about 2%. Associated with CALF which increased by 20.6%, the agro-climatic conditions led to an increase in biomass (BIOMASS, +22%). With a VCIx of 0.90, the crop condition development graph for graph based on NDVI shows that during the monitoring period, crop conditions was generally satisfactory in the AEZ. 

With a maximum VCI value of 0.94, favourable crop condition was observed in the Semi-arid zone. In this region, the rainfall and temperature increased by 44% and 1.5ºC, while the radiation decreased by 3%. An increase of 8.4% in cropped arable land faction and an increase in biomass (about 29%). indicate favourable crop prospects

The Desert zone registered significant increases in both rainfall and temperature (RAIN, +76% and TEMP, +3.1º). The radiation during this period dropped by 3%. Concerning the agronomic indicators, the BIOMSS increased by 48% and CALF by 1.1%. The maximum VCI for the region was 0.91. The NDVI for this region, suggests better crop conditions from mid-May till the end of the monitoring period. 

Based on the indicators observed for this monitoring period, in general, Angola registered favourable crop conditions.

Figure 3.8. Angola’s crop condition, April-July 2018

 (a) Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Sub-humid zone (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Humid zone

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Arid zone (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Semi-arid zone

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Desert zone

Table 3.2. Angola’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018 

Table 3.3. Angola’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018 

Table 3.4. CropWatch-estimated Maize production for Angola in 2018 (thousand tons)