Winter wheat is growing during the early summer months and is harvested in June and July. Generally, according to the crop condition development graphs, the NDVI values were above the average of the past five years and especially over the maximum of the past five years in May. After May, NDVI values first increased and thereafter gradually decreased. CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that Rainfall (287 mm) was above the average (16%), the temperature (19°C) was about the average (+0.5°C); RADPAR (1269 MJ/m²) was 4% below the 5YA as a result, with the CALF of 0.99. BIOMSS increased 11% and VCIx was high (0.94). Overall crop condition in the country is satisfactory.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy, among which three are relevant for crops cultivation. These four regions are Eastern Italy, Northern Italy, Southern Italy and Western Italy. 

In Northern Italy, the situation and expected impact on crop production is almost identical with Eastern Italy with the exception of more rainfall, temperature and a low RADPAR, resulting high biomass production potential: RAIN +20% relative to average, TEMP -0.6°C, RADPAR -6%, BIOMSS  +18%, VCIx 0.97  and CALF 0.99. The NDVI development graph exceeded the 5 years maximum in May. Based on agroclimatic indicators, above average output is expected.

In spite of high RAIN (+20%), TEMP (+0.6°C above average) and a somewhat low RADPAR (-3%), the overall condition of wheat in Eastern Italy was above; BIOMSS increased by 14.7% compared with the averages (5YA). VCIx was 0.93 with a high CALF of 0.99.  The crop condition development graph of NDVI exceeded the 5 years average except in April. According to agroclimatic indicators, above average output is expected.

Overall condition of wheat in Southern Italy was above the average as the expected BIOMSS increased by 20.9% compared with the averages (5YA), while VCIx was 0.91 and CALF reached 0.98. The situation results from abundant RAIN (20% above average), average TEMP (0.3°C below average) and lower RADPAR (-2%),  The NDVI curves reached the average of 5 years except in May and June. Generally, above average output is expected.

Compared to average, the situation in Western Italy does not differ much from the North of the country:  RADPAR (-4%), TEMP (+0.4°C), VCIx (0.94) and CALF (0.99)  while a small increase in RAIN (+9.6%) led to a minor BIOMSS increase of 4%. NDVI values were close to the maximum of 5 years. CropWatch expects above average production. 

With the mentioned situations, crop prospects are generally excellent due to favorable rainfall. Production of winter wheat is likely above the average.

Figure3.24. Italy crop condition, April-July 2018

Figure3.24a. Italy phenology of major crops 

Figure3.24b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA)  Italy maximum VCI
                                                                                                                                                               

Figure3.24d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure3.24f. crop condition development graph based on NDVI Eastern Italy (Italy)(right)  and  Northern Italy (Italy)(left)

Figure3.24h. crop condition development graph based on NDVISouthern Italy (Italy) (right)and Western Italy (Italy) (left)

Table3.45  Italy agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table3.46  Italy agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.47  CropWatch-estimatedrice production for Italy in 2018 (thousands tons)