Country Analysis

During the AMJJ period, Morocco produces mostly maize and wheat. Farmers planted wheat during November and December so as to harvest May and June. Maize was planted in February and harvested in June and July. 

As shown by the Crop Watch agroclimatic indices, compared to average, rainfall increased by 22%, and the average temperature was as much as 2.3℃ below average. Nationwide, the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) showed an increase of 34%. The biomass production potential is 11% above the average of the previous 5 years.

Based on the VCIx indicator, favorable crop condition prevailed as the value mostly exceeded 0.92. NDVI-based crop condition development graphs show that there the situation was above the five-year average. The spatial NDVI patterns indicate that NDVI was above average by 64.2% of cropland. Altogether, CropWatch estimates that 2018 wheat production will remain below the output of 2017.

Regional analysis

The reported period covers mainly cereal, wheat producing areas of warm semi-arid zones, warm subhumid and cool sub-humid of Morocco

The warm semiarid zone recorded 60 mm of rainfall over four months, which is an increase over average of 11%. Temperature and RADPAR were below average by 2.3°C and 7%, respectively, two rather significant values! Even though the rainfall increased BIOMSS dropped 4 % below the five-year average. In addition, the NDVI profile was above the five years average, and the maximum VCIx value was at 0.98. Overall the outlook was favorable for crop production.

In the Warm sub-humid zone, rainfall increased by 32% above average with a decreased temperature of 2.4℃ and RADPAR 9% below reference values. VCIx reached 0.89. In general, based on the NDVI crop condition development graphs and the indicators, crop condition was favorable.

The Cool subhumid zone is very suitable for wheat cultivation. Rainfall increased over the fifteen years average (RAIN +21%) and BIOMSS followed with +19% output potential compared with the last five years. Similar to the other AEZs, RADPAR fell 9% and cool weather prevailed  (TEMP -2.3°C).   NDVI profiles stayed above the five-year average. VCIx reached 0.83). The available indicators generally concur to assess the situation as favorable. 

                                      Figure 3.29. Morocco’s crop condition, April-July 2018

                                                                                      (a). Phenology of major crops

         (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI           (c) Maximum VCI 

          (d). Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA            (e) . NDVI profile          

  (f). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI ( warm semiarid zones).and (g). warm sub humid zones )

             (h) . crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Cool subhumid zone.

Table 3.52. Morocco, Agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.53. Morocco, Agronomicindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from5YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.54.CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Morocco in 2018 (thousand tons)